Katharina Bergant, Rui Mano, and Mr. Ippei Shibata
policies as an indicator of the potential costs of a broader “green” transition. Detailed data on occupations, industries, and households are employed for the former. Plant-level environmental regulations under the Clean Air Act (CAA) are used to examine effects of the latter.
Crucial for this work is the definition of green jobintensity. Here we follow a recent but rapidly-expanding literature ( Consoli et al., 2016 , Vona et al., 2018 , Bowen et al., 2018 , IMF, 2022 , and Bluedorn et al., 2022 ). We rely on a green index constructed by Vona et al., 2018 based
We evaluate the direct employment effect of the public investment in key infrastructure—electricity, roads, schools and hospitals, and water and sanitation. Using rich firm-level panel data from 41 countries over 19 years, we estimate that US$1 million of public spending in infrastructure create 3–7 jobs in advanced economies, 10–17 jobs in emerging market economies, and 16–30 jobs in low-income developing countries. As a comparison, US$1 million public spending on R&D yields 5–11 jobs in R&D in OECD countries. Green investment and investment with a larger R&D component deliver higher employment effect. Overall, we estimate that one percent of global GDP in public investment can create more than seven million jobs worldwide through its direct employment effects alone.
Statistcs, and authors’ calculations.
Wei, Patadia, and Kammen (2010) .
including large and small hydropower; direct jobs only.
Some evidence from firm-level data . We also examine what firm level data can tell us about relative job-intensities of the different technologies. Worldscope data on global listed firms includes detailed business classification making it possible to identify firms with narrowly defined areas of operation, such as manufacturing of renewable energy equipment
This brief paper accompanies the Green Energy and Jobs tool, which is a simple excel-based tool to estimate the job-creation potential of greening the electricity sector. Specifically, it calculates the net job gains or losses from increasing the level of energy efficiency, and from increasing the share of clean and renewable electricity generation in the total electricity output mix. The tool relies on estimates of job multipliers in the literature, and adds evidence from firm-level data on the job-intensity of different energy sources. The paper illustrates applications of the tool using data from the IEA’s Sustainable Development Scenario compared to business-as-usual. This tool is intended to help country teams engage further on climate change issues in bilateral surveillance.
accompanies the Green Energy and Jobs tool, which is a simple excel-based tool to estimate the job-creation potential of greening the electricity sector. Specifically, it calculates the net job gains or losses from increasing the level of energy efficiency, and from increasing the share of clean and renewable electricity generation in the total electricity output mix. The tool relies on estimates of job multipliers in the literature, and adds evidence from firm-level data on the job-intensity of different energy sources. The paper illustrates applications of the tool using
I. O verview
1. Background work for the Article IV consultations with France, Germany, Italy, and Spain has been pooled and focused on two topics: fiscal policy frameworks and the job-intensity of growth. The topics are highly relevant to macroeconomic performance and policy making in all four countries. Fiscal frameworks take on added importance in a monetary union and need to address ongoing tensions between long-term consolidation goals and short-term policy objectives. Such tensions are currently quite prominent as the economic slowdown puts budget
Katharina Bergant, Rui Mano, and Mr. Ippei Shibata
What are the implications of the needed climate transition for the potential reallocation of the U.S. labor force? This paper dissects green and polluting jobs in the United States across local labor markets, industries and at the household-level. We find that geography alone is not a major impediment, but green jobs tend to be systematically different than those that are either neutral or in carbon-emitting industries. Transitioning out of pollution-intensive jobs into green jobs may thus pose some challenges. However, there is a wage premium for green-intensive jobs which should encourage such transitions. To gain further insights into the impending green transition, this paper also studies the impact of the Clean Air Act. We find that the imposition of the Act caused workers to shift from pollution-intensive to greener industries, but overall employment was not affected.
composition of a fiscal stimulus. Experience suggests that fiscal packages have significant jobintensity. For example, the US American Recovery and
Reinvestment Act created six to eight jobs in the short term per $1 million spent ( Wilson 2012 ; Garin 2019 ; Ramey 2020 ). Firm-level information on revenues and employment for selected sectors, covering 27 advanced economies and 14 emerging markets over 1999 to 2017, shows that jobintensity ranges from about two jobs per $1 million invested in schools and hospitals to three jobs in electricity in advanced economies, and
substantial heterogeneity in practices across the states, we show that if states operating at sub-par levels adopted best practices, the ease of doing business could improve substantially at the national level. This improvement could reduce labor underutilization, as cross-country evidence suggests that reforms to the business environment could improve the job-intensity of growth .
A. Labor Market Developments and Prospects
1. Until the current downturn, Nigeria experienced robust growth from about 2000 . Real GDP grew at an average rate of almost 8 percent per year