other words, the model puts together several crucial pieces that help capture the main mechanisms and policy issues of interest for debt sustainability analysis, particularly those associated with the linkages between public investment, growth, and debt. These crucial pieces comprise (i) the investment-growthnexus, (ii) the fiscal adjustment, and (iii) the private sector response. We proceed to elaborate on these pieces, on how the DIGNAD extension incorporates crucial features related to natural disasters and adaptation, and how it can be applied to the Maldivian
This paper studies growth patterns in Emerging Market Economies (EMs) from the perspective on clusters and taxonomies. First, it documents developments over the past five decades in EMs and uses a cluster analysis to better understand convergence and the investment-growth nexus. Second, it looks at the performance of EMs since 2000 and develops a taxonomy to classify countries according to their factor endowments as well as their real and financial external linkages. The taxonomy offers insights on growth dynamics pre and post the global financial crisis. Results highlight the high degree of heterogeneity in EMs and the need for more granular and targeted near and long-term policy advice.
interesting discoveries. The investment-growthnexus can be examined by looking at the joint results of growth and investment clusters ( Figure 7a ). The high growth country is always associated with high investment as the case with China, while low growth countries are always associated with low investments, as these countries appear in the intersection of two sets. Furthermore, when an economy shows declining investment, it also experiences declining growth. In addition, the correlation of real GDP growth and TFP growth clusters is strong: most low growth countries
Bolivia’s “Patriotic Agenda 2025” sets targets for social and economic development propelled by state-led industrialization under a five-year development plan (2016–2020). Large-scale public investment has aimed to fill infrastructure gaps and raise productivity to ensure sustained medium-term growth. Pursuit of these goals in a period of lower hydrocarbon revenues has, however, contributed to widening fiscal and external current account deficits. The paper uses a structural model to outline different scenarios for the level of public investment in the face of declining hydrocarbon revenues. It finds that if public investment is sustained at current levels as a share of GDP while hydrocarbon revenues continue to decline, the sustainability of the public debt could be called into question.