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Kei-Mu Yi and Mr. Ayhan Kose
Recent empirical research finds that pairs of countries with stronger trade linkages tend to have more highly correlated business cycles. We assess whether the standard international business cycle framework can replicate this intuitive result. We employ a three-country model with transportation costs. We simulate the effects of increased goods market integration under two asset market structures, complete markets and international financial autarky. Our main finding is that under both asset market structures the model can generate stronger correlations for pairs of countries that trade more, but the increased correlation falls far short of the empirical findings. Even when we control for the fact that most country-pairs are small with respect to the rest of the world, the model continues to fall short. We also conduct additional simulations that allow for increased trade with the third country or increased TFP shock comovement to affect the country pair's business cycle comovement. These simulations are helpful in highlighting channels that could narrow the gap between the empirical findings and the predictions of the model.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

-Saharan Africa: Effect on Growth of Different Conflict Intensity Levels Source: IMF staff calculations. Note: Quartiles based on the world distribution of conflict-related deaths as a share of population (among countries with at least 1 death). Bars indicate difference relative to no conflict case. Based on regression results in Annex Table 2.6, column 1. ***, **, and * indicate statistical significance at the 1, 5, and 10 percent level, respectively. The effect of conflicts on growth, however, appears to be conditional on some macroeconomic characteristics

International Monetary Fund

. Information Technology IV. Safeguards in the Context of Budgetary Support V. Conclusions Table: 1. Number and SDR Value of Fund Arrangements, 2001-2010 Figure: 1. Monitoring Tools by Monitoring Intensity Level Attachments: I. CURRICULA VITAE OF THE PANEL MEMBERS II. THE PANEL’S SOURCES OF INFORMATION III. SUMMARY OF MEETINGS IV. SDR VALUE OF FUND ARRANGEMENTS V. RISK-BASED MONITORING VI. PRINCIPLES OF GOOD GOVERNANCE 1 SDRs are Special Drawing Rights, the unit of account at the IMF. Data on outstanding credit to the Fund are drawn

Jacques R. Artus

longer-term potential output, however, is not so much whether the frequency and length of coffee breaks increases considerably, although this may play a role, but the employment of part of the labor force in menial tasks or tasks that do not directly lead to an increase in manufacturing output. In periods of economic boom, by contrast, employees may be willing to work harder than usual, but only on a temporary basis. There is, of course, no direct way either to measure the intensity of use of labor or to define a normal intensity level. The same difficulty occurs with

Kei-Mu Yi and Mr. Ayhan Kose

approximately ¼ of one percent of GDP. For trade intensities close to the median, a doubling or tripling is not a large increase in level terms. Moreover, we perform simulations indicating that what matters for the model is the change in trade intensity levels, not logs. Consequently, we reestimate the FR regressions using trade intensity levels. We also compute the responsiveness of GDP comovement to trade intensity levels implied by our model and compare it to the new coefficient estimates. Now the model performs better. For the best benchmark country pair, the model

Mr. Paul Henri Mathieu and Mr. Clinton R. Shiells

have encouraged the inefficient use of energy by households and industries. By international standards, energy-use intensity levels in the CIS remain extremely high, not only in the region’s net energy exporters but also in energy-importing countries, such as Belarus and Ukraine. The causes There are a number of reasons for the problems that have hobbled the CIS’s energy sector, including discriminatory and monopolistically controlled access to transit pipelines, coupled with too much state involvement and distorted prices. Unreliable and discriminatory