This paper discusses key findings of the Fifth Review for Haiti under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility. The program seeks to protect critical spending for infrastructure rehabilitation and poverty reduction strategy paper implementation in light of significant revenue shortfalls, thus maintaining growth and reducing the impact of the global crisis on the population. All end-March quantitative criteria, structural benchmarks, and all but one structural performance criteria were met. The latter was implemented with a small delay. IMF staff supports the authorities’ request for a waiver and recommends completion of the review.
The report throws light on the process of recovery from the global financial crisis in Iceland. The strong growth performance witnessed in 2011 seems to continue in 2012. The closing output gap and the decline in unemployment have been marked as positive changes. The major external and internal risks to the financial sector are highlighted, and emphasis is laid on the need to address risks and achieve fiscal targets by maintaining a strong, independent, and adequately resourced Financial Supervisory Authority (FME).
This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights Iceland’s continued real GDP growth, driven by tourism. Growth reached 7.2 percent in 2016 and is projected at almost 6 percent in 2017 before tapering to about 2.5 percent over the medium term. Bank credit to the nonfinancial private sector remains muted, growing only 4.3 percent in 2016, but it is expected to pick up. Thus far, growth has been driven not by leverage but by exports, private consumption, and investment. Iceland’s current account surplus is projected to shrink modestly over time, with some export sectors suffering while others thrive.
Yes, partly. This paper studies the potential role of structural reforms in improving Japan’s outlook using the IMF’s Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model (GIMF) with newly-added demographic features. Implementation of a not-fully-believed path of structural reforms can significantly offset the adverse effect of Japan’s demographic headwinds — a declining and ageing population — on real GDP (by about 15 percent in the next 40 years), but would not boost inflation or contribute substantially to stabilizing public debt. Alternatively, implementation of a fully-credible structural reform program can contribute significantly to stabilizing public debt because of the resulting increase in inflation towards the Bank of Japan’s target, while achieving the same positive long-run effects on real GDP. If no reforms are implemented, severe demographic headwinds are expected to reduce Japan’s real GDP by over 25 percent in the next 40 years.
Iceland’s 2005 Article IV Consultation reports that new projects have rekindled rapid growth and the economy is exhibiting signs of overheating, with imbalances evident in inflation, the current account, and external debt. GDP grew at an average rate of 3.8 percent between 1995 and 2004, second only to Ireland among industrial countries. Major investment projects have contributed both to the high growth rate and to overall macroeconomic volatility because of their size relative to that of the economy.
This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that Switzerland’s economy has performed relatively well in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, with growth reaching 2 percent in 2014. However, the economic environment became more complicated in late 2014, as increased capital inflows forced the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to start intervening heavily to defend its exchange rate floor of 1.20 francs per euro. Over the medium term, the economy is expected to recover gradually. As the economy adjusts to the exchange rate appreciation, growth is projected to rise gradually back to about 2 percent over the medium term while inflation increases to about 1 percent.
This Article IV Consultation highlights that Sweden’s growth is expected to slow in 2019, with material downside risks from the global economy and domestic demand. A data-dependent approach to monetary policy is appropriate. Although underlying inflation is expected to rise gradually, uncertainties around this outlook have widened. Automatic fiscal stabilizers should operate fully, and the surplus should decline to the new medium-term target by 2020. The fiscal surplus is estimated to have declined to just under 1 percent of GDP in 2018. The report also discussed that labor market reforms should enhance employment of migrants and the low skilled. The social partners should update wage formation to reflect structural changes in the Swedish economy. Reforms to improve housing affordability are needed even as macroprudential measures help contain household debt vulnerabilities. The tightening of amortization requirements is well-targeted, and its effectiveness should be monitored. Plans to eliminate rent controls on new construction should be complemented by phasing out controls on existing apartments.