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Mingwei Yuan and Ms. Kalpana Kochhar
In this paper, the behavior of China’s imports during the period 1980-92 is studied. The estimation of cointegration and error correction mechanisms enables the separation of the long-run and short-run determinants of imports in China. The estimated cointegrating vector using Johansen’s cointegration approach shows that, in the long run, China’s imports are sensitive to changes in output, relative prices, and foreign exchange reserves. It also shows that the short-run output elasticity of imports is much greater than that in the long run, suggesting that import substitution may have been an important factor over the sample period. The forecasting ability of a conventional partial adjustment import function is then compared with that of the Johansen cointegration model; the Johansen model is shown to outperform the conventional one in forecasting accuracy.
Mr. V. Sundararajan and Mr. Subhash Madhav Thakur

import demand functions for productive inputs. The contention of this paper is that the formulation of import functions (outlined above), though valid for consumer goods imports, is not reliable when one deals with intermediate products, the demand for which is mainly “derived demand.” The traditional import demand functions, which use gross national product (GNP) or a component of it as an explanatory variable, implicitly assume either that the unit import requirements of all components of GNP are equal or that the unit import requirements of several components of GNP

Mr. Willem Bier
This paper describes a computer program with which one can build macroeconomic models. It is possible to specify up to eighteen behavioral equations, each with between five and eleven independent variables. For certain variables, the user can decide whether they will be endogenous or exogenous. Many policy simulations dealing with adjustment and growth issues can be performed with this program by varying any of the exogenous variables, and these experiments can be repeated for different model specifications. This paper describes a number of experiments with a model of an open economy where output and prices are endogenous.