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Mr. Yunhui Zhao
Using zip code-level data and nonparametric estimation, I present eight stylized facts on the US housing market in the COVID-19 era. Some aggregate results are: (1) growth rate of median housing price during the four months (April-August 2020) since the Federal Reserve’s unprecedented monetary easing has accelerated faster than any four-month period in the lead-up to the 2007-09 global financial crisis; (2) the increase in housing demand in response to lower mortgage interest rates displays a structural break since March 2020 (housing demand has increased by much more than before). These results indicate either the existence of “fear of missing out” or COVID-induced fundamental changes in household behavior. In terms of distributional evidence, I find that the increase of housing demand seems more pronounced among the two ends of the income distribution, possibly reflecting relaxed liquidity constraints at the lower end and speculative demand at the higher end. I also find that the developments in housing price, demand, and supply since April 2020 are similar across urban, suburban, and rural areas. The paper highlights some potential unintended consequences of COVID-fighting policies and calls for further studies of the driving forces of the empirical findings.
Samya Beidas-Strom, Weicheng Lian, and Ashwaq Maseeh

Data in EMCD 2. The Burst in the Housing Price Bubble: Differences in Timing Figures 1. Mortgage Debt Extended by Banks and Mortgage Market Innovations 2. Nominal and Real House Prices in Four EMCD countries, 11/2005-7/2009 3. Nominal and Real CPI Rent, 1/1990-7/2009 4. Comparison Between Real House and Rental Price in Four EMCD Countries, (2003-09) 5. Comparison of GDP, Consumption, House and Rental Price in Kuwait, 2003-08 6. Mortgage Market Index and Consumption Correlations, 1989-08 Tables 1. Characteristics of the Housing Market in EMCD 2

International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Housing Price Bubble in Germany’s Main Cities? Front Matter Page GERMANY STAFF REPORT FOR THE 2018 ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION—INFORMATIONAL ANNEX June 15, 2018 Prepared By European Department CONTENTS FUND RELATIONS STATISTICAL ISSUES Front Matter Page Press Release No. 18/276 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE July 5, 2018 International Monetary Fund 700 19 th Street, NW Washington, D. C. 20431 USA Telephone 2.2-623-7100 Fax 200-623-6772 www.imf.org

International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.

include emerging market countries and those of systemic importance where balance sheet developments can generate negative regional or international externalities. The IMF will also continue to work with industrial countries to refine balance sheet analysis and to integrate their assessments into Article IV consultations, specifically in staff studies of potential risks from equity and housing price bubbles in mature countries. More work on the balance sheet approach is also envisaged at both the analytical and operational levels. The IMF’s First Deputy Managing

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

, 2004 , “Are U.S. Households Living Beyond Their Means?” Finance 򠀦 Development , Vol. 41 , No. 1 ( March ). Girouard , Nathalie , and Sveinbjörn Blöndal , 2001 , “House Prices and Economic Activity,” Organization for Economic Development and Cooperation Working Paper No. 279 . Helbling , Thomas , 2004 , “Housing Price Bubbles—A Tale Based on Housing Price Booms and Busts,” Bank for International Settlements Papers No. 21 ( April ). Helbling , Thomas , and Marco Terrones , 2003a , “Real and Financial Effects of

International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.

Thailand. 4 Czech Republic, Hungary, Israel, Pakistan, Poland, Russia, South Africa, and Turkey. 5 Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, and Venezuela. Data: Haver Analytics; IMF, World Economic Outlook, April 2003; and IMF staff estimates This is now more likely than it was before the war began, he added, but it would be a mistake to think that “it was just the war.” A number of other risks also weigh on the outlook, including: the continuing unwinding of the equity price bubble; the emerging risk of a housing price bubble in some regions