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International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
The fallout from the COVID-19 crisis is hitting ECCU economies hard. Tourism receipts (accounting for nearly 40 percent of GDP) have dried up, as tourist arrivals have come to a grinding halt. The authorities successfully contained the spread of the virus at the onset of the pandemic by largely closing the borders, but a reopening of the economies since the summer has led to a surge in COVID cases. The ECCU economy is projected to contract by 16 percent in 2020 and by a further near ½ percent in 2021. Fiscal positions have deteriorated sharply, and public debt is projected to reach near 90 percent of GDP in 2021 and remain at an elevated level for years to come. Headline indicators suggest the financial system is relatively sound with ample liquidity buffers, but nonperforming loans are expected to rise significantly. The outlook is clouded by exceptionally high risks, including from the uncertainty concerning the evolution of the pandemic.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

at the onset of the pandemic by largely closing the borders, but a reopening of the economies since the summer has led to a surge in COVID cases. The ECCU economy is projected to contract by 16 percent in 2020 and by a further near ½ percent in 2021. Fiscal positions have deteriorated sharply, and public debt is projected to reach 90 percent of GDP in 2021 and remain at an elevated level for years to come. Headline indicators suggest the financial system is relatively sound with ample liquidity buffers, but nonperforming loans are expected to rise significantly

International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

The fallout from the COVID-19 crisis is hitting ECCU economies hard. Tourism receipts (accounting for nearly 40 percent of GDP) have dried up, as tourist arrivals have come to a grinding halt. The authorities successfully contained the spread of the virus at the onset of the pandemic by largely closing the borders, but a reopening of the economies since the summer has led to a surge in COVID cases. The ECCU economy is projected to contract by 16 percent in 2020 and by a further near ½ percent in 2021. Fiscal positions have deteriorated sharply, and public debt is projected to reach near 90 percent of GDP in 2021 and remain at an elevated level for years to come. Headline indicators suggest the financial system is relatively sound with ample liquidity buffers, but nonperforming loans are expected to rise significantly. The outlook is clouded by exceptionally high risks, including from the uncertainty concerning the evolution of the pandemic.

Angana Banerji, Ms. Bergljot B Barkbu, Mr. James A John, Mr. Tidiane Kinda, Mr. Sergejs Saksonovs, Hanni Schoelermann, and Mr. Tao Wu

: Moving to a Structural Union Boxes 1. Financial Sanctions Within The Governance Framework 2. Structural Reforms and the SGP Tables 1. Possible Outcome-Based Benchmarks on Area-Wide Priority Reforms 2. Examples of Outcome-Based Directives and Regulations 3. Alternative Specification of 2014 CSR Recommendations: Some Examples 4. National Productivity Councils of Australia, Belgium, Germany and New Zealand: A Brief Summary Figures 1. Euro Area Productivity 2. EU Governance Framework for Structural Reforms—An Illustration 3. Europe 2020 Headline

Mr. Timothy C Irwin

, since a problem suppressed in one fiscal indicator is likely to show up in another. Many of the devices documented in this note would be revealed if governments also reported change in net worth and high-quality long-term forecasts of the headline indicator of the deficit under current policy.

International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Conclusions FIGURES 1. Euro Area Productivity 2. EU Governance Framework for Structural Reforms—An Illustration 3. Europe 2020 Headline Indicators—Target Values and Progress since 2008 4. Country Compliance with CSRs 5. Progress Toward 2014 CSR Targets 6. Four Complementary Proposals for Strengthening the Governance of Structural Reforms: An Illustration 7. Structural Reform Indicators: Distance to OECD Best Practice 8. Direct Fiscal Costs of Reforms 9. European Structural Investment Funds TABLES 1. Possible Outcome-Based Benchmarks on Area