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International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

Global economic activity is experiencing a broad-based and sharper-than-expected slowdown, with inflation higher than seen in several decades. The cost-of-living crisis, tightening financial conditions in most regions, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the lingering COVID-19 pandemic all weigh heavily on the outlook. Global growth is forecast to slow from 6.0 percent in 2021 to 3.2 percent in 2022 and 2.7 percent in 2023. This is the weakest growth profile since 2001 except for the global financial crisis and the acute phase of the COVID-19 pandemic. Global inflation is forecast to rise from 4.7 percent in 2021 to 8.8 percent in 2022 but to decline to 6.5 percent in 2023 and to 4.1 percent by 2024. Monetary policy should stay the course to restore price stability, and fiscal policy should aim to alleviate the cost-of-living pressures while maintaining a sufficiently tight stance aligned with monetary policy. Structural reforms can further support the fight against inflation by improving productivity and easing supply constraints, while multilateral cooperation is necessary for fast-tracking the green energy transition and preventing fragmentation.

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

The authors of this chapter are Mehdi Benatiya Andaloussi, Benjamin Carton (co-lead), Christopher Evans, Florence Jaumotte, Dirk Muir, Jean-Marc Natal (co-lead), Augustus J. Panton, and Simon Voigts, with support from Carlos Morales, Cynthia Nyakeri, and Yiyuan Qi. They thank Jean Pisani-Ferry for helpful comments on an earlier draft.

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

The authors of this chapter are Mehdi Benatiya Andaloussi, Benjamin Carton (co-lead), Christopher Evans, Florence Jaumotte, Dirk Muir, Jean-Marc Natal (co-lead), Augustus J. Panton, and Simon Voigts, with support from Carlos Morales, Cynthia Nyakeri, and Yiyuan Qi. They thank Jean Pisani-Ferry for helpful comments on an earlier draft.

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

The authors of this chapter are Mehdi Benatiya Andaloussi, Benjamin Carton (co-lead), Christopher Evans, Florence Jaumotte, Dirk Muir, Jean-Marc Natal (co-lead), Augustus J. Panton, and Simon Voigts, with support from Carlos Morales, Cynthia Nyakeri, and Yiyuan Qi. They thank Jean Pisani-Ferry for helpful comments on an earlier draft.

International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
The A remote technical assistance (TA) mission to the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF) was conducted during ten days over the period of August 31–November 30, 2020.1 This activity was part of Cambodia’s participation in the Japan-funded Government Finance Statistics (GFS) and Public Sector Debt Statistics (PSDS) Project for selected Asian countries (JSA3)2. The overall goal of the JSA3 Project is to assist the MEF in strengthening compilation and dissemination of fiscal data in line with the GFS Manual 2014 and the PSDS: Guide for Compilers and Users to support macro-fiscal surveillance and decision making. The mission liaised with Mr. Alexandros Mourmouras, Director of the Capacity Development Office in Thailand (CDOT), Mr. Rifaat Basanti, the IMF Regional JSA3 GFS/PSDS Project Manager, Mr. Suhas Joshi, the IMF Regional Treasury Advisor—both in the CDOT, Mr. Yasuhisa Ojima, the IMF’s Resident Representative for Cambodia, and Ms. Magdalena Tomczynska-Smith, the IMF’s Budget Planning Advisor for Cambodia. The mission would like to thank the authorities for their excellent collaboration and support (Appendix I lists the main official contacts).
Ms. Florence Jaumotte, Weifeng Liu, and Warwick J. McKibbin
Background paper prepared for the October 2020 IMF World Economic Outlook. This paper provides a detailed presentation of the simulation results from the October 2020 IMF World Economic Outlook chapter 3 and an additional scenario with carbon pricing only for comparison with the comprehensive policy package where green investments were also included. This paper has greatly benefitted from continuous discussions with Oya Celasun and Benjamin Carton on the design of simulations; contributions from Philip Barrett for part of the simulations; and research support from Jaden Kim. We also received helpful comments from other IMF staff. All remaining errors are ours. McKibbin and Liu acknowledge financial support from the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence in Population Ageing Research (CE170100005).
Nicoletta Batini, Ian W.H. Parry, and Mr. Philippe Wingender