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Mr. Francesco Caselli, Mr. Francesco Grigoli, Weicheng Lian, and Mr. Damiano Sandri

. (2020) , Goolsbee and Syverson (2020) , and Maloney and Taskin (2020) document indeed that mobility has been tightly correlated to the spread of COVID-19 even after controlling for government lockdowns, especially in advanced economies. In line with this literature, the regression framework provides estimates that can shed light on the strength of voluntary social distancing by capturing the response of mobility to rising COVID-19 infections for a given lockdown stringency. 9 Figure 3 presents the estimates of the strength of voluntary social distancing by

Ms. Era Dabla-Norris, Hibah Khan, and Frederico Lima

the ability of national health systems to respond to the crisis. These latter questions are however not available in selected economies in our sample, namely China, Hong Kong SAR, Thailand, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. Finally, we take data on confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths from the COVID-19 Data Repository by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University ( Dong et al., 2020 ), and information on the stringency of government lockdowns and adoption dates of government policies related to COVID-19 from the Oxford

Mr. Francesco Caselli, Mr. Francesco Grigoli, Mr. Damiano Sandri, and Mr. Antonio Spilimbergo
Lockdowns and voluntary social distancing led to significant reduction in people’s mobility. Yet, there is scant evidence on the heterogeneous effects across segments of the population. Using unique mobility indicators based on anonymized and aggregate data provided by Vodafone for Italy, Portugal, and Spain, we find that lockdowns had a larger impact on the mobility of women and younger cohorts. Younger people also experienced a sharper drop in mobility in response to rising COVID-19 infections. Our findings, which are consistent across estimation methods and robust to a variety of tests, warn about a possible widening of gender and inter-generational inequality and provide important inputs for the formulation of targeted policies.
Andras Komaromi

exposure is measured by a set of weights or “shares”. Our units are countries that are differentially exposed to lockdown measures in other countries due to the heterogeneity in pre-existing trade connections. Specification . Let M ^ i t denote year-on-year import growth in country i on day t . We want to identify the supply spillover effect that foreign governmentslockdowns may have had on this import growth. Let lj t be the stringency of lockdown measures in country j and on day t . Further let w i,j denote the pre-COVID fraction of imports into

Mr. Francesco Caselli, Mr. Francesco Grigoli, Mr. Damiano Sandri, and Mr. Antonio Spilimbergo

and Taskin (2020) document that mobility was tightly correlated with the spread of COVID-19 even after controlling for government lockdowns. In line with this literature, the specification in equation (2) sheds light on the strength of voluntary social distancing by capturing the response of mobility to rising COVID-19 infections for a given lockdown stringency. 10 The interaction term between daily COVID-19 infections and the gender dummy reveals if the extent of voluntary social distancing differs between men and women. Specifically, the coefficient β 0 h

Andras Komaromi
World trade contracted dramatically during the global economic crisis induced by the COVID-19 pandemic. Disruptions in international supply chains were widely reported as governments imposed containment measures (lockdowns) to halt the spread of the disease. At the same time, demand declined as households and firms scaled back spending. This paper attempts to disentangle the supply and demand channels in trade by quantifying the causal effect of supply spillovers from lockdowns. We utilize a novel dataset of daily bilateral seaborne trade, and design a shift-share identification strategy that leverages geography-induced cargo delivery lags to track the transmission of supply disruptions across space. We find strong but short-lived supply spillovers of lockdowns through international trade. Moreover, the evidence is suggestive of the downstream propagation of countries’ lockdowns through global supply chains.
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

the economic contraction was driven by the adoption of government lockdowns instead of by people voluntarily reducing social interactions for fear of contracting or spreading the virus. This issue is important to understand retrospectively the nature of the recession and to provide insights into the strength of the upcoming recovery. If lockdowns were largely responsible for the economic contraction, it would be reasonable to expect a quick economic rebound when they are lifted. But if voluntary social distancing played a predominant role, then economic activity

Mr. Francesco Caselli, Mr. Francesco Grigoli, Mr. Damiano Sandri, and Mr. Antonio Spilimbergo
Mr. Francesco Caselli, Mr. Francesco Grigoli, Weicheng Lian, and Mr. Damiano Sandri
Using high-frequency proxies for economic activity over a large sample of countries, we show that the economic crisis during the first seven months of the COVID-19 pandemic was only partly due to government lockdowns. Economic activity also contracted because of voluntary social distancing in response to higher infections. We also show that lockdowns can substantially reduce COVID-19 infections, especially if they are introduced early in a country's epidemic. Despite involving short-term economic costs, lockdowns may thus pave the way to a faster recovery by containing the spread of the virus and reducing voluntary social distancing. Finally, we document that lockdowns entail decreasing marginal economic costs but increasing marginal benefits in reducing infections. This suggests that tight short-lived lockdowns are preferable to mild prolonged measures.