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Mr. Vito Tanzi and Mr. Howell H Zee
The present paper takes a fresh theoretical and empirical look into the relationship between Wagner’s law and economic development. It introduces human capital into a classic two-sector model of unbalanced growth. It shows that, as an economy develops, changes in the relative returns to human capital and unskilled labor, as a result of changes to their relative scarcities, could have a significant impact on the size of the government sector, depending in part also on the difference in relative factor intensities between outputs of the private and government sectors. This conjecture is broadly supported by empirical evidence based on a cross-section analysis of a large sample of developed and developing countries.
Mr. Peter S. Heller
The paper assesses the government expenditure effects from changing demographics in the Asian “Tiger” economies through 2050. With some exceptions, their limited social insurance commitments initially suggest that aging populations may not adversely affect fiscal balances. Yet for all the Tigers, changing illness patterns and medical modernization may combine with demographics to intensify budgetary pressures. The paper notes the implications of the Tigers’ reliance on private sector pension and medical insurance systems; the need for an active public role; and the complications for fiscal analysis when private sector instruments are used, in a mandatory way, as public policy instruments.
International Monetary Fund

Statistics (GFS). The GFS covers countries for which public finance data are available for at least two levels of government and for a sufficiently long time span in the period 1970–95. Appendix Table 4 provides definitions/sources of the following fiscal decentralization indicators used below: (1) subnational tax autonomy, (2) subnational nontax autonomy, (3) vertical imbalances in intergovernmental fiscal relations, (4) subnational government expenditure share, and (5) subnational government size. The fiscal decentralization indicators above are of three types. First

International Monetary Fund

), SIS ( Seguro Intergral de Salud ), the Glass of Milk and PRONIE (National Education Infrastructure). Results focused budgeting has been implemented since the 2007 Budget Act. Gini Indices 1/ (Percent) Sources: OECD Latin America Economic Outlook 2012. 1/ Data vary from 2006-08. Peru: Public Sector Social Expenditure Share of GDP Average increase Share of general government expenditure Share in total 2005 2010 2005 2010 2005-10 2005 2010 2005 2010 (In mil. of Nuevos Sole (In

Yu Ching Wong

Average Share of General Share of GDP Increase Government Expenditure Share in Total 2005 2010 2005 2010 2005-10 2005 2010 2005 2010 (Millions of nuevos soles) (Percent) Total Social Expenditure and Pensions 28,607 46,367 10.9 10.7 10.1 57.8 52.3 100.0 100.0 Universal Coverage (Education and health) 1 10,587 18,979 4.0 4.4 12.4 21.4 21.4 37.0 40.9 Education 7,527 11,292 2.9 2.6 8.4 15.2 12.7 26.3 24

Maria Antoinette Silgoner, Jesús Crespo-Cuaresma, and Gerhard Reitschuler

hypothesized smoothing impact (for lower levels). This effect, however, reverts for higher levels and could actually increase cyclical volatility. Subsidies and social security transfers, on the other hand, do not have a smoothing impact, neither in the linear nor in the nonlinear model setting. V. C onclusions The effect of fiscal stabilizers (proxied by the government expenditure share adjusted for discretionary policy) on cyclical volatility is studied for a panel of EU member states in the last three decades. The smoothing impact of fiscal stabilizers is tested

Mr. Giorgio Brosio

. 1 Excise taxes are not mentioned in the Proclamation and the Constitution. Table 2 . Ethiopia: Expenditures and Revenue of the Federal and State Governments 1 (In percent of total) 1993/94 Preliminary Actual 2 1994/95 Preliminary Actual 2 1995/96 Budget Federal government Expenditure share 68.5 60.1 55.4 Revenue share 83.2 85.3 83.9 Difference 3 14.7 25.2 28.5 State governments Expenditure share 31.5 39.9 44.6 Revenue share 16.8 14.7 16

International Monetary Fund

Nondurable consumption, share of output 0.47 Housing investment, share of output 0.16 Capital investment, share of output 0.10 Government expenditure, share of output 0.27 Public debt servicing, share of output 0.004 Tax revenue, share of output 0.291 Labor income tax revenue, share of output 0.180 Capital income tax revenue, share of output 0.111 Mortgage interest subsidy, share of output 0.022 Risk-free interest rate, percent (annualized) 4.0 Market mortgage rate, percent (annualized) 6

Maria Antoinette Silgoner, Jesús Crespo-Cuaresma, and Gerhard Reitschuler
We study the smoothing impact of fiscal stabilizers (proxied by government expenditures or revenues) on business cycle volatility for a panel of EU countries in the period 1970-99. The results show that the business cycle volatility smoothing effect of fiscal stabilizers may revert at high levels. We present evidence that for government expenditure ratios exceeding an estimated value of about 38 percent, a further expansion in the size of the government could actually lead to an increase in cyclical volatility. This may call for a reconsideration of the use of fiscal stabilizers for business cycle smoothing.