The paper assesses the government expenditure effects from changing demographics in the Asian “Tiger” economies through 2050. With some exceptions, their limited social insurance commitments initially suggest that aging populations may not adversely affect fiscal balances. Yet for all the Tigers, changing illness patterns and medical modernization may combine with demographics to intensify budgetary pressures. The paper notes the implications of the Tigers’ reliance on private sector pension and medical insurance systems; the need for an active public role; and the complications for fiscal analysis when private sector instruments are used, in a mandatory way, as public policy instruments.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
A $10 billion three-year Stand-By Arrangement for Indonesia was approved by the IMF’s Executive Board on November 5 [for complete text of Press Release, see pages 354–56]. The financing provided by the IMF will be supported by substantial funding from the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank and other lenders; the total amount of the first line of financial assistance to Indonesia, including the use of part of Indonesia’s own external assets, will be on the order of $23 billion. In addition, a number of other economies—including Australia, China, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, Japan, Malaysia, Singapore, and the United States—have indicated that, if necessary, they would consider making available supplemental financing to support Indonesia’s program with the IMF.
Vivian Malta, Angelica Martinez, and Ms. Marina Mendes Tavares
Female-to-male employment in Senegal increased by 14 percentage points between 2006 and 2011. During the same period years of education of the working age population increased 27 percent for females and 13 percent for males, reducing gender gaps in education. In this paper, we quantitatively investigate the impact of this increase in education on female employment in Senegal. To that end, we build an overlapping generations model that captures barriers that women face over their life-cycle. Our main findings are: (i) the improvement in years of education can explain up to 44 percent of the observed increased in female-to-male employment ratio and (ii) the rest can be explained by a decline in the discrimination against women in the labor market.
This paper reviews the evolution of certain price and nonprice competitiveness indicators in Chile and concludes that the pecuniary loss of competitiveness associated with the appreciation of the peso since the late 1980s has been broadly offset by productivity gains and adjustments in factor intensity, particularly in the manufacturing sector. However, there may be limited room for further advances from that point, which gives new prominence to certain policy issues such as structural reforms to increase productivity, a reassessment of the tax treatment of the mining sector, and a rebalancing of the macroeconomic policy mix to dampen speculative capital inflows.
Calvo, Leiderman and Reinhart (1993) .
The question of the driving forces underlying capital flows also brings out a key distinction between sustainability and intertemporal solvency of the current account. For a discussion of this issue see Milesi-Ferretti (1998) .
See Corden and Neary (1982) for a detailed discussion of this issue.
A textbook example is that of nitrates in Chile early this century.
Several papers have found the governmentexpenditureeffect in Chile to be relatively small. See for example Schmidt-Hebbel and
20 The question of the driving forces underlying capital flows also brings out a key distinction between sustainability and intertemporal solvency of the current account. For a discussion of this issue see the next chapter of this report.
21 See Corden and Neary (1982) for a detailed discussion of this issue.
22 A textbook example is that of nitrates in Chile early this century.
23 Several papers have found the governmentexpenditureeffect in Chile to be relatively small. See for example Schmidt-Hebbel and Servén (1995) , Arellano and
Vivian Malta, Angelica Martinez, and Ms. Marina Mendes Tavares
from surging consumer tax and income tax on wages in the formal sector. These gains could be much larger if the formal economy were larger, as it would allow the government to collect more taxes from firms and employee in the formal sector. We assume the policy cost is one percent of GDP per year, which is the difference between the observed government yearly education expenditure from 2006 to 2011. In this case, the net governmentexpenditureeffect would be 0.1% of GDP per year in the long run. Note however, that although policy costs and resulting revenues are
This Selected Issues paper examines economic developments in Chile during 1995–97. Average output growth exceeded 7 percent in 1995–97 and twelve-month inflation fell from 9 percent at end-1994 to 6 percent at end-1997. Economic management during this period was complicated by a sharp swing in export prices, and—up to the last quarter of 1997—strong and rising capital inflows. After a surge in 1995, the price of copper declined by more than 20 percent in 1996, recovered in early 1997, and fell sharply later in the year.
This paper presents main characteristics of a typical oil economy. Estimates of proven oil reserves in Saudi Arabia differ widely, ranging from estimates by ARAMCO and the other companies of about 100 billion barrels to figures exceeding 150 billion barrels. In 1969, two US firms commissioned by the Saudi Arabian Government completed studies of the country's oil reserves, estimating 126.4 billion barrels for the fields surveyed. Growth of oil production in Saudi Arabia has been determined largely by exogenous factors connected with the growth of world demand for oil and fluctuations in supplies from other producing areas. Industrial and agricultural development in Saudi Arabia has been constrained by the scarcity of natural resources, other than oil. Agricultural and fishery resources can be potentially significant, but only recently have they been systematically explored. Based on a clear comparative advantage in the supply of oil and natural gas, industrial development in Saudi Arabia is proceeding from oil production and refining to petrochemicals and to other energy-intensive industries.