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International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

revenue and expenditure measures. The authorities are keen on maintaining the sustainable fiscal stance with the help of prudent policies in capital spending. To this end, a rules-based fiscal rule will be in place starting from July 2014. The rule has been designed to keep the general government deficit as well as gross public debt under control. In order to support the economy’s growth potential, capital projects are exempt from the ceiling; depending on the privatization receipts and the level of the government bank balance. The authorities attach utmost importance

International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

revenue and expenditure measures. The authorities are keen on maintaining the sustainable fiscal stance with the help of prudent policies in capital spending. To this end, a rules-based fiscal rule will be in place starting from July 2014. The rule has been designed to keep the general government deficit as well as gross public debt under control. In order to support the economy’s growth potential, capital projects are exempt from the ceiling; depending on the privatization receipts and the level of the government bank balance. The authorities attach utmost importance

International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

slowdown in economic growth that has complicated the meeting of fiscal targets. The authorities’ intend to treat the arrangement as precautionary in 2013, provided the return of the government’s bank balance to a fully adequate level is ensured. “The 2013 budget brings Kosovo close to a fully sustainable fiscal stance. An allocation for starting construction for a new highway R6 to Macedonia will be executed only once the government bank balance is close to a fully adequate level, and a feasibility study confirming viability of the project has been completed. Careful

International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

⁢ c ⁢ e ⁢ n ⁢ t   ⁢ ⁢ o ⁢ f   ⁢ X , where STD is short-term external debt at remaining maturity, OPL are other external portfolio liabilities, M2 is broad money, and X is exports. The reserve buffer related to STD insures against disruptions in debt markets, OPL against equity outflows, M2 against a possible depositor run, and X against trade disruptions. 7. Several modifications are needed to transform this yardstick into an operational government bank balance (BB) target . With unilateral euroization there is no

International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

.9 5.6 6.0 5.5 4.4 4.1 3.5 0.0 Overall balance −0.2 −0.7 −2.6 −1.9 −2.7 −3.5 −1.8 −1.9 −2.0 −2.0 Debt financing, net 0.0 −0.2 0.3 −0.1 3.0 1.4 1.9 2.1 2.0 2.1 Privatization 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 6.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 Stock of government bank balances 10.8 8.7 5.8 3.5 4.7 8.6 8.4 8.3 7.5 7.2 Recommended minimum bank balances 1/ … … 5.7 5.8 6.2 6.8 7.0 7.3 7.3 7.2 Financing gap 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 0

International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Kosovo’s economy is slowing, although it continues to display resilience overall. The banking sector remains well capitalized, liquid, and profitable, notwithstanding a recent increase in nonperforming loans. The main downside risk to the outlook remains a possible deterioration in labor market conditions. To safeguard primary fiscal balance target by year-end, the authorities have pre-identified spending cuts. The authorities are pursuing further initiatives to strengthen competitiveness, attract investment from abroad, and promote the development of a tradable sector.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This staff report on the Republic of Kosovo’s Fourth Review under the Stand-By Arrangement discusses macroeconomic and financial policies. Banking-sector soundness indicators have remained largely unchanged. The revenue shortfall owed to a mix of lower than programmed customs receipts, and delays in receiving transfers from the sales of telecommunication licenses, and lignite royalties. The shortfall was only partially compensated by higher domestic tax collection, and the earlier than expected receipt in dividends from Post and Telecom of Kosovo. Passage of the rules-based fiscal framework would be a key step toward ensuring fiscal sustainability in the longer term.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

.7 Privatization 0.0 0.0 0.9 5.8 0.0 Stock of government bank balances 5.7 3.3 4.3 7.9 6.1 Financing gap 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Savings-investment balances (percent of GDP) 2/ Domestic savings -3.8 -4.9 -3.6 -3.7 -2.4 Transfers excluding general government (net) 15.4 14.6 15.8 15.7 13.2 Net factor income 1.6 2.4 3.1 3.1 3.1 National savings 13.2 12.1 15.3 15.1 16.0 Investment 32.7 32.7 30.9 29.5 28.2 Current account, excl. official