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You are looking at 1 - 10 of 27 items for :

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Reforming Energy Policy in India
Assessing the Options
Ian W.H. Parry, Victor Mylonas, and Nate Vernon

.9 11.7 2.5 1.7 1.5 1.0 724 702 571 405 27.7 25.4 20.6 15.5 Fuel Prices IMF 21.2 19.0 16.4 11.5 2.6 1.7 1.6 1.0 534 516 368 298 20.0 17.1 11.7 10.7 IEA 15.1 14.0 11.9 8.0 2.1 1.4 1.3 0.8 338 325 228 181 12.2 11.0 7.4 6.6 Source: From equations and parameter assumptions in Appendices A and B. The percent reduction in CO 2 emissions under different policies is obviously sensitive to fuel price elasticities—for example, if fuel price responses are

Keywords:
WP; price; firm; fuel price elasticity; average cost; net; rate; user price; injury cost; emissions price; fuel price response; cost increase; administration cost
Cover IMF Working Papers
Mitigation Policies for the Paris Agreement: An Assessment for G20 Countries
Ian W.H. Parry, Victor Mylonas, and Nate Vernon
Following submission of greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation commitments or pledges (by 190 countries) for the 2015 Paris Agreement, policymakers are considering specific actions for their implementation. To help guide policy, it is helpful to have a quantitative framework for understanding: i) the main impacts (on GHGs, fiscal balances, the domestic environment, economic welfare, and distributional incidence) of emissions pricing; ii) trade-offs between pricing and other (commonly used) mitigation instruments; and iii) why/to what extent needed policies and their impacts differ across countries. This paper provides an illustrative sense of this information for G20 member countries (which account for about 80 percent of global emissions) under plausible (though inevitably uncertain) projections for future fuel use and price responsiveness. Quantitative results underscore the generally strong case for (comprehensive) pricing over other instruments, its small net costs or often net benefits (when domestic environmental gains are considered), but also the potentially wide dispersion (and hence inefficiency) in emissions prices implied by countries’ mitigation commitments.
Keywords:
WP; co; electricity Co; tons Co; percent Co; road fuel price elasticity; Paris Agreement; carbon pricing; G20 countries; instrument choice; air pollution mortality; tax incidence; welfare effects; climate mitigation; fuel price elasticity; fuel price responsiveness; cost increase; monopoly price distortion; welfare cost; responsiveness of emission; countries flexibility; fuel price response; price change; price projection; Carbon tax; Greenhouse gas emissions; Non-renewable resources; Fuel prices; Fuel tax; Africa; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Dynamic Fuel Price Pass-Through: Evidence from a New Global Retail Fuel Price Database
Mr. Kangni R Kpodar and Mr. Chadi Abdallah
This paper assesses the dynamic pass-through of crude oil price shocks to retail fuel prices using a novel database on monthly retail fuel prices for 162 countries. The impulse response functions suggest that on average, a one cent increase in crude oil prices per liter translates into a 1.2 cent increase in the retail gasoline price at peak level six months after the shock. However, the estimates vary significantly across country groups, ranging from about 0.5 cent in MENA countries to two cents in advanced economies. The results also show that positive oil price shocks have a larger impact than negative price shocks on the retail gasoline price. Finally, the paper underscores the importance of the new dataset in refining estimates of the fiscal cost of incomplete pass-through.
Keywords:
WP; price; fuel price; oil price; Retail fuel prices; fuel subsidies; pass-through; price shock; fiscal cost; pass-through coefficient; price gap; price change; fuel price pass-through; fuel price shock; retail fuel price; fuel price database; transportation cost; price differential; price difference; Fuel prices; Oil prices; Energy subsidies; Inflation; Gasoline; Sub-Saharan Africa; Europe; Asia and Pacific; North Africa; Middle East
Cover Staff Climate Notes
Proposal for an International Carbon Price Floor Among Large Emitters
Ian Parry, Mr. Simon Black, and Mr. James Roaf
Countries are increasingly committing to midcentury ‘net-zero’ emissions targets under the Paris Agreement, but limiting global warming to 1.5 to 2°C requires cutting emissions by a quarter to a half in this decade. Making sufficient progress to stabilizing the climate therefore requires ratcheting up near-term mitigation action but doing so among 195 parties simultaneously is proving challenging. Reinforcing the Paris Agreement with an international carbon price floor (ICPF) could jump-start emissions reductions through substantive policy action, while circumventing emerging pressure for border carbon adjustments. The ICPF has two elements: (1) a small number of key large-emitting countries, and (2) the minimum carbon price each commits to implement. The arrangement can be pragmatically designed to accommodate equity considerations and emissions-equivalent alternatives to carbon pricing. The paper discusses the rationale for an ICPF, considers design issues, compares it with alternative global regimes, and quantifies its impacts.
Keywords:
Climate change, international carbon price floor, large emitters, Paris Agreement, design issues, mitigation; IMF staff climate note; emissions target; emissions-equivalent alternative; equity consideration; alternatives to carbon pricing; Greenhouse gas emissions; Climate change; Carbon tax; Global
Cover Staff Climate Notes
Not Yet on Track to Net Zero: The Urgent Need for Greater Ambition and Policy Action to Achieve Paris Temperature Goals
Mr. Simon Black, Ian Parry, Mr. James Roaf, and Karlygash Zhunussova
Achieving the Paris Agreement’s temperature goals requires cutting global CO2 emissions 25 to 50 percent this decade, followed by a rapid transition to net zero emissions. The world is currently not yet on track so there is an urgent need to narrow gaps in climate mitigation ambition and policy. Current mitigation pledges for 2030 would achieve just one to two thirds of the emissions reductions needed for limiting warming to 1.5 to 2oC. And additional measures equivalent to a global carbon price exceeding $75 per ton by 2030 are needed. This IMF Staff Climate Note presents extensive quantitative analyses to inform dialogue on closing mitigation ambition and policy gaps. It shows purely illustrative pathways to achieve the needed global emissions reductions while respecting international equity. The Note also presents country-level analyses of the emissions, fiscal, economic, and distributional impacts of carbon pricing and the trade-offs with other instruments—comprehensive mitigation strategies will be key.
Keywords:
Climate change mitigation, Paris Agreement, ambition gap, policy gap, mitigation pledges, abatement costs, carbon pricing, feebates; IMF staff climate note; IMF Staf Climate Notes; mitigation ambition; ambition gap; Paris temperature goal; Greenhouse gas emissions; Climate change; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Still Not Getting Energy Prices Right: A Global and Country Update of Fossil Fuel Subsidies
Ian W.H. Parry, Mr. Simon Black, and Nate Vernon
This paper provides a comprehensive global, regional, and country-level update of: (i) efficient fossil fuel prices to reflect their full private and social costs; and (ii) subsidies implied by mispricing fuels. The methodology improves over previous IMF analyses through more sophisticated estimation of costs and impacts of reform. Globally, fossil fuel subsidies were $5.9 trillion in 2020 or about 6.8 percent of GDP, and are expected to rise to 7.4 percent of GDP in 2025. Just 8 percent of the 2020 subsidy reflects undercharging for supply costs (explicit subsidies) and 92 percent for undercharging for environmental costs and foregone consumption taxes (implicit subsidies). Efficient fuel pricing in 2025 would reduce global carbon dioxide emissions 36 percent below baseline levels, which is in line with keeping global warming to 1.5 degrees, while raising revenues worth 3.8 percent of global GDP and preventing 0.9 million local air pollution deaths. Accompanying spreadsheets provide detailed results for 191 countries.
Keywords:
fossil fuel subsidies; efficient fuel prices; supply costs; climate change; local air pollution mortality; revenue gains; spreadsheet tools.; fossil fuel subsidy; supply cost; price reform; fossil fuel; fuel user price; Non-renewable resources; Fuel prices; Energy subsidies; Greenhouse gas emissions; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
A Framework for Comparing Climate Mitigation Policies Across Countries
Mr. Simon Black, Danielle N Minnett, Ian W.H. Parry, Mr. James Roaf, and Karlygash Zhunussova
There is growing interest in international coordination over climate mitigation policy. Climate clubs or international carbon price floors could complement the Paris Agreement by helping to deliver the near-term cuts in global greenhouse gas emissions needed to contain global warming to 1.5 to 2oC. To ensure inclusivity, these arrangements need to account for varying mitigation policies across countries, including carbon pricing, fuel taxes, subsidy reform, and non-pricing approaches like regulations. A transparent methodology is needed to compare and monitor mitigation effort by countries implementing diverse policy packages. This paper presents and illustrates a methodology for converting climate mitigation policies and targets into their carbon price equivalents and applies it to the Group of Twenty (G20) countries.
Keywords:
Emissions reductions; carbon price equivalence; G20; non-pricing instrument; sectoral target; fuel taxes; temperature aligned mitigation.; climate mitigation policy; annex B. policy equivalence; reductions from Policites; policy package; industry emissions target; policy instrument; mitigation approach; emissions impact; BAU emissions projection; emission rate standard; Greenhouse gas emissions; Fuel tax; Climate policy; Global; Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Global Fossil Fuel Subsidies Remain Large: An Update Based on Country-Level Estimates
Mr. David Coady, Ian W.H. Parry, Nghia-Piotr Le, and Baoping Shang
This paper updates estimates of fossil fuel subsidies, defined as fuel consumption times the gap between existing and efficient prices (i.e., prices warranted by supply costs, environmental costs, and revenue considerations), for 191 countries. Globally, subsidies remained large at $4.7 trillion (6.3 percent of global GDP) in 2015 and are projected at $5.2 trillion (6.5 percent of GDP) in 2017. The largest subsidizers in 2015 were China ($1.4 trillion), United States ($649 billion), Russia ($551 billion), European Union ($289 billion), and India ($209 billion). About three quarters of global subsidies are due to domestic factors—energy pricing reform thus remains largely in countries’ own national interest—while coal and petroleum together account for 85 percent of global subsidies. Efficient fossil fuel pricing in 2015 would have lowered global carbon emissions by 28 percent and fossil fuel air pollution deaths by 46 percent, and increased government revenue by 3.8 percent of GDP.
Keywords:
WP; cost; term; estimate; supply cost; energy subsidies; efficient taxation; revenue; environment; deadweight loss; road damage cost; fuel price elasticity; fuel-price responsiveness; accident cost; air pollution; emission rate estimate; Non-renewable resources; Fuel prices; Consumption; Global; Europe; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Working Papers
A Comprehensive Climate Mitigation Strategy for Mexico
Mr. Simon Black, Koralai Kirabaeva, Ian W.H. Parry, Mr. Mehdi Raissi, and Karlygash Zhunussova
This paper discusses a comprehensive strategy for implementing Mexico’s climate mitigation commitments. Progressively increasing carbon prices from current levels of US$3 per ton to US$75 per ton by 2030 would achieve Mexico’s mitigation pledges, while raising annual revenues of 1.8 percent of GDP and cumulatively averting 11,600 deaths from local air pollution. The carbon price would raise fossil fuel and electricity prices, imposing burdens of 2.7 percent of consumption on the average Mexican household. However, recycling carbon pricing revenues would offset most of this burden, and targeted transfers could make the reform pro-poor and pro-equity. Additionally, the economic efficiency costs of carbon pricing (0.3 percent of GDP in 2030) are more than offset by local air pollution and other domestic environmental benefits (before even counting climate benefits). Mexico would need a more ambitious 2030 target if it were to follow many other countries in adopting a midcentury ‘net-zero’ emissions target. To enhance the effectiveness of the mitigation strategy, carbon pricing can be reinforced with sectoral instruments, such as feebates in the transport, power, industry, building, forestry, extractive, and agricultural sectors. Complementary policies are also needed to support public investment in the clean energy transition.
Keywords:
Climate change; Mexico climate mitigation; carbon pricing; carbon tax; emissions trading system; feebate; natural gas; industry; buildings; transportation; agriculture; forestry.; emissions target; mitigation strategy; transition policy; distributional incidence; emission rate; emissions intensity; Greenhouse gas emissions; Carbon tax; Climate change; Natural disasters; Global; Western Hemisphere
Cover IMF Working Papers
Implementing the United States’ Domestic and International Climate Mitigation Goals: A Supportive Fiscal Policy Approach
Ian W.H. Parry
The United States has pledged to become carbon neutral by 2050, meet sectoral objectives (e.g., for carbon free power, electric vehicles) and encourage greater mitigation among large emitting countries and of international transportation emissions. Fiscal policies at the national, sectoral, and international level could play a critical role in implementing these objectives, along with investment, regulatory, and technology policies. Fiscal instruments are cost-effective, can enhance political acceptability, and do not worsen, or could help alleviate, budgetary pressures. Domestically, a fiscal policy package could contain a mix of economy-wide carbon pricing and revenue-neutral feebates (i.e., tax-subsidy schemes) with the latter reinforcing mitigation in the transport, power, industrial, building, forestry, and agricultural sectors. Internationally, a carbon price floor among large emitters (with flexibility to implement equivalent measures) could effectively scale up global mitigation, while levies/feebates offer a practical approach for reducing maritime and aviation emissions.
Keywords:
Climate change; carbon neutrality; US climate mitigation; carbon pricing; feebates; carbon price floor; international aviation and maritime.; WP; efficiency cost o n; feebate variant; fuel economy; mitigation cost; international aviation and maritime; emission rate; sliding scale; cost increase; feebate scheme; Carbon tax; Greenhouse gas emissions; Non-renewable resources; Natural gas sector; Fuel prices; Global; Africa