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Mr. Ajai Chopra and Mr. Peter J Montiel

and expectations are rational. Unlike in the original Barro formulation, open-economy variables appear as important explanatory variables. Unlike the existing literature, the form in which these variables appear is explicitly derived from an underlying structural model. The model is adapted to a developing country setting by according an important role to imported intermediate goods and by allowing for the presence of foreign exchange rationing. The resulting equation is estimated for the Philippines over the period 1959–84, and appears to fit the data quite well