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Surjit Bhalla, Karan Bhasin, and Mr. Arvind Virmani
The paper presents estimates of poverty [extreme poverty PPP$1.9 and PPP$3.2] and consumption inequality in India for each of the years 2004-5 through the pandemic year 2020-21. These estimates include, for the first time, the effect of in-kind food subsides on poverty and inequality. Extreme poverty was as low as 0.8 percent in the pre-pandemic year 2019, and food transfers were instrumental in ensuring that it remained at that low level in pandemic year 2020. Post-food subsidy inequality at .294 is now very close to its lowest level 0.284 observed in 1993/94.
Surjit Bhalla, Karan Bhasin, and Mr. Arvind Virmani

.6 3.6 Poverty Decline (URP) PPP$1.9 -14.1 -16.6 -24.0 -35.2 -32.9 PPP$3.2 -4.6 -7.1 -10.2 -22.4 -17.0 Source: Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation Table 2: Poverty (in %) and Gini Estimates for India -Traditional, No Food Transfers 2004 2011 2014 2017 2019 2020 1.9$ PPP Updates based on Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) Modified Mixed Recall 32.7 12.2 7.4 2.9 1.4 2

Surjit Bhalla, Karan Bhasin, and Mr. Arvind Virmani

views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT : The paper presents estimates of poverty [extreme poverty PPP$1.9 and PPP$3.2] and consumption inequality in India for each of the years 2004–5 through the pandemic year 2020–21. These estimates include, for the first time, the effect of in-kind food subsides on poverty and inequality. Extreme poverty was as low as 0.8 percent in the pre-pandemic year 2019, and food transfers were instrumental in ensuring that it remained at that low level in pandemic year 2020. Post-food subsidy inequality at

International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

private stakeholders, thus disrupting the normal functioning of the markets. This type of situation increases the risk to private-sector investment in marketing activities stockpiling, adversely affecting the markets. Challenges Ahead 6. Role of markets . The “3N” reflects strong political leadership in food security; staff will stress the importance of the markets in food security as it has been shown by the 2010 crisis: Food transfers provided by the market are incommensurate with the volume of transfers provided by humanitarian organizations. In addition