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Uwe Eiteljörge and Mr. Clinton R. Shiells
This paper attempts to assess the incremental external financing requirements occasioned by changes in world food prices, due to implementation of the Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture, for a sample of 57 developing countries. Based on estimates of changes in food prices due to the Round obtained in previous studies, and on detailed data on food trade by country and commodity, the present study shows that the increase in net food import costs are likely to be smaller than 4 percent of net food imports over a period of six years for the countries considered, although for some of the larger trading nations the effect may exceed US$10 million.
Uwe Eiteljörge and Mr. Clinton R. Shiells

coffee, tea, and meat, were excluded. These other commodities represent important sources of foreign exchange earnings for many developing countries rather than imports for basic food requirements; inclusion of these commodities would therefore distort the analysis. The exact composition of the four food commodity groups was dictated by use of the FAO Trade Yearbook as the basic data source. 25/ b. Projected effects of the Uruguay Round A baseline projection for net food imports for each country during 1994-2000 will be constructed below for each of the four

Mr. Norbert Funke, Weifeng Wu, and Yanliang Miao
We revive in this paper the empirical relevance of the competitive storage model by taking a holistic approach to food commodity prices. We augment the seminal Deaton and Laroque (1992, 1996) model by incorporating more comprehensive and realistic supply and demand factors: output and demand trends, shocks to the yield, and time-varying interest rates. While the computational burden increases exponentially, the augmented model succeeds in replicating all four key patterns of food commodity prices. Our simulation and comparative statics also show that (i) the long-run declining trend of food prices may come to a halt or even reverse due to the shifting balance between supply and demand; (ii) short-run price fluctuations are mainly attributable to sizeable, though low-probability, shocks to output such as inclement weather; and (iii) the impact of monetary policy, though small in normal times, is nonlinear and asymmetric, and can become large if the real rate passes a certain threshold.
Mr. Norbert Funke, Weifeng Wu, and Yanliang Miao

model II, IV and V 28 , allowing for a more vivid comparison of them. 4.5 Other Food Commodities Wheat is a representative of the general food commodity group, and the supply and demand characteristics of maize, rice, and soybeans are similar to those of wheat, as shown in Figure 10 . Rice is most similar to wheat: the output/demand ratio is increasing while the real price is falling. Maize price also behaves as expected, except that there may be an additional effect from demand for bio-fuel after the 2000s. Soybeans are slightly different: its output growth