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Chris Redl and Sandile Hlatshwayo

) , where f ^ T b ( x ) is the share of unrest events for the terminal node associated with x for the b th tree. Our preferred test statistic is the area under the Receiver Operator Characteristic (ROC) curve (which we denote by AUC). The ROC plots the true positive rate (events correctly classified as unrest divided by total unrest events) against the false positive rate (events incorrectly classified as unrest divided by all events with no unrest associated with them) as the threshold for classifying an event as unrest (e.g., the estimated model