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Ms. Natasha X Che
This paper presents a set of collaborative filtering algorithms that produce product recommendations to diversify and optimize a country's export structure in support of sustainable long-term growth. The recommendation system is able to accurately predict the historical trends in export content and structure for high-growth countries, such as China, India, Poland, and Chile, over 20-year spans. As a contemporary case study, the system is applied to Paraguay, to create recommendations for the country's export diversification strategy.
Ms. Natasha X Che

This paper presents a set of collaborative filtering algorithms that produce product recommendations to diversify and optimize a country's export structure in support of sustainable long-term growth. The recommendation system is able to accurately predict the historical trends in export content and structure for high-growth countries, such as China, India, Poland, and Chile, over 20-year spans. As a contemporary case study, the system is applied to Paraguay, to create recommendations for the country's export diversification strategy.

Ms. Natasha X Che and Xuege Zhang
This paper studies the relationship between export structure and growth performance. We design an export recommendation system using a collaborative filtering algorithm based on countries' revealed comparative advantages. The system is used to produce export portfolio recommendations covering over 190 economies and over 30 years. We find that economies with their export structure more aligned with the recommended export structure achieve better growth performance, in terms of both higher GDP growth rate and lower growth volatility. These findings demonstrate that export structure matters for obtaining high and stable growth. Our recommendation system can serve as a practical tool for policymakers seeking actionable insights on their countries’ export potential and diversification strategies that may be complex and hard to quantify.
Ms. Natasha X Che and Xuege Zhang

: what’s behind the hump? ” In: Review of Economics and Statistics 93 . 2 ( 2011 ), pp. 590 – 605 . Che , Natasha . “ Intelligent Export Diversification: An Export Recommendation System with Machine Learning ”. In: IMF Working Papers 2020 . 175 ( 2020 ). Clickstreams, Multi-faceted Web . “ Workshop Notes ”. In: ( 2005 ). Feenstra , Robert and Hiau Looi Kee . “ Export variety and country productivity: Estimating the monopolistic competition model with endogenous productivity ”. In: Journal of international Economics 74 . 2 ( 2008 ), pp. 500

Ms. Natasha X Che and Xuege Zhang

the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT: This paper studies the relationship between export structure and growth performance. We design an export recommendation system using a collaborative filtering algorithm based on countries' revealed comparative advantages. The system is used to produce export portfolio recommendations covering over 190 economies and over 30 years. We find that economies with their export structure more aligned with the recommended export structure achieve better growth performance, in terms of both higher GDP growth rate

International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

. Che , Natasha . “ Intelligent export diversification: an export recommendation system with machine learning ”. IMF Working Paper , 2020 . Che , Natasha and Xuege Zhang . “ High performance export portfolio: design growth-enhancing export structure with machine learning ”. IMF Working Paper , 2021 . Clickstreams, Multi-faceted Web . “ Workshop Notes ”, 2005 . Feenstra , Robert and Hiau Looi Kee . “ Export variety and country productivity: Estimating the monopolistic competition model with endogenous productivity ”. In: Journal of