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International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This Selected Issues paper proposes a simple nowcast model for an early assessment of the Salvadorian economy. The exercise is based on a bridge model, which is one of the many tools available for nowcasting. For El Salvador, the bridge model exploits information for the period 2005–17 from a large set of variables that are published earlier and at higher frequency than the variable of interest, in this case quarterly GDP. The estimated GDP growth rate in the 4th quarter of 2017 is 2.4 percent year-over-year, leading to an average GDP growth rate of 2.3 percent in 2017. This is in line with the GDP growth implied by the official statistics released two months later, in March 23, 2018.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

competition from some of the big players like China, India and Bangladesh, but also from emerging smaller Asian countries like Vietnam and Cambodia. To catalyze export growth El Salvador needs to undertake important structural reforms aimed at creating an entrepreneur enabling environment, with the twin objectives of increasing competitiveness of exporting firms and diversifying the export base . A. Overview 1. El Salvador’s exports have been stagnant over the last few years . El Salvador’s exports are sizeable relative to GDP though not the highest when compared to

International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

growth: El Salvador outperformed most of its Central American peers in exports during this pre-crisis period. However, this episode was shortlived and likely caused by external demand, highlighting difficulties for El Salvador to generate a durable supply response in the tradable sectors. Agriculture (Real growth in percent) Sources: Haverand Central Bank Exports of Goods (Percent of GDP) Source: IMF WEO database. Manufacturing (Real growth in percent) Sources: Haverand Central Bank. Nominal Export Growth (Percent of GDP

International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This paper focuses on policies to raise growth; underpin fiscal sustainability while enhancing social safety nets; and strengthen financial sector stability, deepening, and inclusiveness. GDP growth averaged 2 percent during 2000–14, well below the Central American regional average of 4½ percent. While the underlying causes of the low growth are complex, a key channel through which they are evident appears to be low investment. Given the need to increase growth, revenue-raising measures should be accompanied by cuts in distortionary taxation. Stress tests suggest that financial buffers are adequate to contain most risks. The financial deepening and advancing financial inclusion could have a meaningful impact on both growth and poverty.