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Mr. Eugenio M Cerutti, Shan Chen, Mr. Pragyan Deb, Albe Gjonbalaj, Mrs. Swarnali A Hannan, and Mr. Adil Mohommad

to where there is scope for scaling up. In terms of spillover effects, China’s top ten exporters for each product will be considered, in proportion to their current export exposure to China (for these products). The “ cascading” approach uses more granular bilateral trade data (at the 6-digit level) and considers all trading partners (instead of top-ten exporters). Among these goods that may be potentially redirected, commodities are assumed to be redirected before manufactures, while goods such as aircraft, that may involve prior contracts, are assumed to be

Mr. Francis Vitek
This paper analyzes the transmission of shocks and policies among and across the Nordic economies and the rest of the world. This spillover analysis is based on a pair of estimated structural macroeconometric models of the world economy, disaggregated into thirty five national economies. We find that the Nordic economies are heavily exposed to external macroeconomic and financial shocks, but have significant scope to mitigate their domestic macroeconomic impacts through coordinated policy responses, given their high degree of regional integration.
Mr. Adil Mohommad

indirect trade linkages between Asian and advanced economies (such as Malaysia’s export exposure to the United States through its exports of intermediate goods to China). Second, the chapter assesses whether consumption and investment in Asia are “too low” and the amount of resources employed in the tradable sector “too high” by comparing them with benchmarks, both model-based and empirical. Third, it uses the IMF’s global integrated monetary and fiscal (GIMF) model to assess the impact of macroeconomic and structural policies that could be adopted in Asia and abroad to

Mai Dao and Ms. Ruo Chen
We examine the impact of real exchange rate fluctuations on sectoral and regional employment in China from 1980 to 2008. In contrast to theoretical predictions, employment in both the tradable and non-tradable sectors contracts following a real appreciation. Our results are robust across different sub-samples, levels of sectoral disaggregation, and are more pronounced for regions with higher export exposure. We attribute our findings to the importance of services as intermediate input in exportable production. We test this channel of exchange rate transmission using regional input-output tables linked with employment data at the region-sector level. The results of this paper have important implications for China's labor market adjustment should the Chinese RMB strengthen in the future. To mitigate the costs of short-run labor market adjustment, appropriate demand management and structural reforms in the non-traded sectors should play an important role.