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Ms. Natasha X Che
This paper presents a set of collaborative filtering algorithms that produce product recommendations to diversify and optimize a country's export structure in support of sustainable long-term growth. The recommendation system is able to accurately predict the historical trends in export content and structure for high-growth countries, such as China, India, Poland, and Chile, over 20-year spans. As a contemporary case study, the system is applied to Paraguay, to create recommendations for the country's export diversification strategy.
Ms. Piritta Sorsa

along with the price of oil and government spending has an important impact on its long-run level. Thus further trade liberalization should be an important element in Algeria’s export diversification strategy. A review of existing trade policies in Algeria reveals that existing levels of protection are high and uneven between sectors. This is likely to attract resources from export-oriented activities, maintain them in inefficient import-substituting activities and encourage rent seeking with an adverse impact on growth. There are also many barriers in trade

Ms. Natasha X Che

a country’s export diversification strategy. But the tools and frameworks for designing such strategies remain scarce. In particular, although the benefit of export diversification has strong empirical support (see Section 2 ), the questions of what industries to diversify into and how to diversify have no easy answers from a policy standpoint. For the first question, classical trade theory suggests that countries should export what they are relatively good at producing, i.e. following comparative advantages. But that advice yields little practical value in

International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

. This rationale has been driving the authorities’ economic transformation agenda and export diversification strategy. The Rwanda Development Board (RDB) has been set as the implementation body of this strategy, with the view to promote Rwanda as a high spot for doing business. Projects like KCC and the overhauling of RwandAir fall under the business tourism aspect of this strategy. The development of the ICT sector has started to bear fruits around emerging young entrepreneurs whose innovations have recently attracted global investors. These strategies and

Mr. Atish R. Ghosh and Mr. Jonathan David Ostry
Uncertainty about the export earnings accruing to a country (sometimes referred to as export instability) is an important source of macroeconomic uncertainty in many developing countries. Theory predicts that countries should react to increases in this form of uncertainty by increasing their level of savings. The resulting asset accumulations would then act as the country’s insurance against the greater riskiness in its income stream. The paper tests this implication for a large sample of developing countries. In general, the results suggest that developing countries have indeed responded to increases in export instability by building up precautionary savings balances.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper discusses key issues and policies for the Rwandan economy. Economic growth in Rwanda has been stronger than expected in 2015. However, growth prospects in 2016 appear gloomy. For example, mining exports have been almost halved in recent months due to low price and low demand. The principal tool to tackle the slump in the economy is continued exchange rate flexibility, accompanied by modest tightening of the monetary stance. Also, there are mid-term policies, for example, export diversification, improved revenue mobilization, and better public financial management that can help achieve sustained high and inclusive growth while strengthening resilience.