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International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Exports Have Become Less Diversified D. Machine Learning Algorithms to Explore Export Diversification Options E. The Application to Uruguay F. Conclusion References FIGURES 1. Number of High-RCA Exports vs GDP Growth and Growth Volatility 2. Export Diversification in Countries of Similar Sizes to Uruguay 3. The Number of High-RCA Exports from Uruguay, 1962–2018 4. Actual and Recommended Export Composition for High-RCA Exports TABLES 1. Summary Statistics of the Algorithm Recommendations 2. Actual and Recommended Export Composition for High

Ms. Manuela Goretti, Mr. Lamin Y Leigh, Aleksandra Babii, Mr. Serhan Cevik, Stella Kaendera, Mr. Dirk V Muir, Sanaa Nadeem, and Mr. Gonzalo Salinas
This departmental paper analyzes the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tourism in the Asia Pacific region, Latin America, and Caribbean countries. Many tourism dependent economies in these regions, including small states in the Pacific and the Caribbean, entered the pandemic with limited fiscal space, inadequate external buffers, and foreign exchange revenues extremely concentrated in tourism. The empirical analysis leverages on an augmented gravity model to draw lessons from past epidemics and finds that the impact of infectious diseases on tourism flows is much greater in developing countries than in advanced economies.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

exchange rate appreciation and domestic wage increases that reduced the competitiveness of the more traditional non-commodity exports, and the fact that few new non-commodity export categories have emerged to replace the ones that lost traction. Reducing the disruptive impact of commodity price cycles on the normal industrialization process while maintaining the comparative advantage in commodity exports is an important policy challenge. D. Machine Learning Algorithms to Explore Export Diversification Options 15. A collaborative-filtering based methodology is

Ms. Manuela Goretti, Mr. Lamin Y Leigh, Aleksandra Babii, Mr. Serhan Cevik, Stella Kaendera, Mr. Dirk V Muir, Sanaa Nadeem, and Mr. Gonzalo Salinas

quartile on this indicator ( Annex Figure 4.1 , panel 2). This is also the case in a number of small states (below 1 million population, highlighted in red), which have significant levels of manufacturing exports. For example, Bahamas, Barbados, Saint Kitts and Nevis, and Saint Lucia have export medicaments, medical goods and equipment, ships and vessels, and electronics. Natural resource-based exports (for example, in fisheries and agriculture) are also a significant export diversification option, including for small states. Several countries have developed other