This Selected Issues paper focuses on some of the key stylized facts of Korean business and export cycles over 1960–2001, and calculates a chronology for the classical cycle in these series by applying a variant of the Bry and Boschan (1971) cycle-doling algorithm. It highlights that the Korean classical business cycle and exports cycles are extremely asymmetric, as they exhibit long-lived expansions and much shorter-lived contractions. The results also indicate that the probability of ending a contraction or expansion phase in Korean industrial production and Korean real exports is independent of their duration.
Purchases under the compensatory financing facility, the IMF’s largest special facility, accounted for more than one quarter of total credit extended by the IMF over the period 1976 to 1985. Given the size of these operations, it is of some interest to determine to what extent the facility served its intended purpose—the stabilization of foreign exchange earnings of member countries experiencing temporary export shortfalls. This paper develops a methodology for evaluating the CFF’s stabilizing role and provides some quantitative evidence of its effectiveness. This evidence is then used to obtain an indication of the facility’s role in stabilizing the demand for international reserves and its contribution to net welfare gain. The results suggest that the facility has been important in stabilizing members’ earnings, and that the net benefits derived by them can be regarded as substantial.
J. MARCUS FLEMING, Rudolf Rhomberg, and LORETTE BOISSONNEAULT
years) appears to correspond roughly to half the length of the average exportcycle in many countries, and in those countries the practical norm therefore appears to move countercyclically to actual exports. Any attempt to stabilize or compensate on the basis of such a practical norm would tend to overshoot the mark.
Though the practical norm shown in the second panel of each chart (A.3), representing the unweighted mean of the exports of the two preceding years, fits the ideal norm more closely than does that shown in the top panel (A.4), its movements are more
This paper focuses on official intervention on the forward exchange market. The purpose is to provide a straightforward account of the theory of intervention and to use it to discuss the problems raised. The forward exchange market may be conveniently treated in terms of stocks rather than of flows; that is, the forward exchange rate is taken as reconciling the desires of market participants with respect to the holding—rather than the changing—of forward exchange positions. Official intervention in the forward exchange market can be analysed by regarding the authorities either as part of the market or as distinct from it. Official swap transactions are frequently undertaken not on the open market but by direct arrangement with foreign monetary authorities or with commercial banks. The substantial rise to be expected in the forward premium would, of course, have an adverse effect on the foreign balance, which might be unwelcome from a cyclical standpoint though it would probably merely involve a diminution in the improvement that would otherwise have occurred as a result of the recession.
I. F eatures of K orean B usiness and E xport C ycles 1
In this study we identify and describe some of the key stylized facts of Korean business and exportcycles over the period 1960–2001, and calculate a chronology for the classical cycle in these series by applying a variant of the Bry and Boschan (1971) cycle-dating algorithm. We find that (1) the Korean classical business cycle and exportscycles are extremely asymmetric, as they exhibit long-lived expansions and much shorter-lived contractions; (2) the probability of ending a contraction or
THIS PAPER is concerned with the interaction between domestic economic policies and external balance in the Sudan. Part I contains an analysis of balance of payments developments during the period 1947-62. Following a description of trends and structural relationships, the discussion is divided into three periods: 1947-51, characterized by a sharply rising trend of exports and imports; the 1952-56 exportcycle; and the 1957-62 exportcycle. Part II deals with monetary and fiscal developments as related to balance of payments problems. The policies adopted