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Dilyana Dimova

in the EU 2. Evolution of Labor Share by Skill Category 3. Evolution of Labor Share in Goods Producing Industries 4. Evolution of Labor Share in Service Industries 5. Shift Share Analysis by Industry and Skill Category 6. The Evolution of Labor Market Factors 7. The Evolution of Goods Market Factors 8. Contribution of Structural Factors to Labor Share Changes in Manufacturing Sectors 9. Contribution of Structural Factors to Labor Share Changes in Agriculture and Trade Industries 10. Contribution of Structural Factors to Labor Share Changes in

International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

. Economic Impact of the Pandemic D. Methodology and Data E. Conclusion FIGURES 1. Seychelles Stringency Index 2. Tourist Arrivals by Source Country 3. Evolution of the External Balance 4. The Evolution of Goods and Services Export and Import 5. Evolution of Fiscal Expenditure 6. Overall Fiscal Balance 7. Revenue & Grants 8. Evolution of Exchange Rate 9. Real GDP and Stringency Index 10. Difference in GDP and Loss from Containment Policies TABLES 1. Selected Economic Indicators, 2020–21, Before and After COVID-19 Shock 2. COVID-19 Related

International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

consumption in tourism related activities . Disaggregated data from the balance of payments show that the contraction of goods imports prevented a further deterioration of the current account deficit ( Figure 4 ). Figure 4: The Evolution of Goods and Services Export and Import (In Million USD) Sources: Authorities and IMF Staff Calculations 16. Economic activity declined by almost -8 percent in 2020 (compared with the pre-crisis projection of a 3.5 percent expansion), on account of a pronounced fall in exports of tourism services 2 . Following the re

Dilyana Dimova
The labor share in Europe has been on a downward trend. This paper finds that the decline is concentrated in manufacture and among low- to mid-skilled workers. The shifting nature of employment away from full-time jobs and a rollback of employment protection, unemployment benefits and unemployment benefits have been the main contributors. Technology and globalization hurt sectors where jobs are routinizable but helped others that require specialized skills. High-skilled professionals gained labor share driven by productivity aided by flexible work environments, while low- and mid-skilled workers lost labor share owing to globalization and the erosion of labor market safety nets.
Jean-Marc Natal and Nicolas Stoffels
We argue that strong globalization forces have been an important determinant of global real interest rates over the last five decades, as they have been key drivers of changes in the natural real interest rate—i.e. the interest rate consistent with output at its potential and constant inflation. An important implication of our analysis is that increased competition in goods and labor market since the 1970s can help explain both the large increase in real interest rates up to the mid-1980s and—as globalization forces mature and may even go into reverse, leading to incrementally rising market power—its subsequent and protracted decline accompanied by lower inflation. The analysis has important implications for monetary policy and the optimal pace of normalization.
Jean-Marc Natal and Nicolas Stoffels

competition). Figure 5 shows that given plausible ranges for markups and their half-lives, the globalization premium can be sizable. To our knowledge, there is very limited empirical evidence on the evolution of goods and labor markets markups over time. However, we can still analyze the implication of various assumptions for the natural interest rate according to equation (11) . For example, setting an overall (net) markup level of 60 percent (i.e. M total,τ = 1.6), which corresponds approximately to the average of total markups (i.e., wage and price markups) in the

Dilyana Dimova

respectively. In some notable outlier cases sch as Ireland and Greece it explains 25 percentage points and 29 percentage points respectively. Figure 5. Shift Share Analysis by Industry and Skill Category Sources: Eurostat, Haver Analytics, and IMF staff calculations. 4 Figure 6. The Evolution of Labor Market Factors Sources: Eurostat, Haver Analytics, and IMF staff calculations. Figure 7. The Evolution of Goods Market Factors Sources: Eurostat, Haver Analytics, and IMF staff calculations. Some exceptions lying above the 45-degree line in the

Mr. Shekhar Aiyar, Mr. Davide Malacrino, Mr. Adil Mohommad, and Mr. Andrea F Presbitero
While standard demand factors perform well in predicting historical trade patterns, they fail conspicuously in 2020, when pandemic-specific factors played a key role above and beyond demand. Prediction errors from a multilateral import demand model in 2020 vary systematically with the health preparedness of trade partners, suggesting that pandemic-response policies have international spillovers. Bilateral product-level data covering about 95 percent of global goods trade reveals sizable negative international spillovers to trade from supply disruptions due to domestic lockdowns. These international spillovers accounted for up to 60 percent of the observed decline in trade in the early phase of the pandemic, but their effect was shortlived, concentrated among goods produced in key global value chains, and mitigated by the availability of remote working and the size of the fiscal response to the pandemic.
Mr. Shekhar Aiyar, Mr. Davide Malacrino, Mr. Adil Mohommad, and Mr. Andrea F Presbitero

imports is found to be large but short-lived, we estimate the baseline model over the first half of 2020 to better gauge the economic effect during the first phase of the crisis. The results, reported in column 6, indicate that the semielasticity is more than twice that estimated for the whole sample. This point estimate is used to generate the evolution of goods imports under a counterfactual with no containment policies in trade partners. Comparing this series with the actual evolution of imports indicates that containment policies accounted for about 60 percent of