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International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

.6 -55.3 -53.1 -51.2 -49.6 -48.1 -46.5 -45.0 (Percent) Money and interest rates M3 (Finnish contribution to euro area, growth rate, e.o.p.) 1.8 6.1 … … … … … … … Finnish MFI euro area loans (growth rate, e.o.p.) 1.4 2.6 … … … … … … … Domestic nonfinancial private sector credit growth (e.o.p.) -2.6 2.4 4.8 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.3 4.0 3.9 3-month Euribor rate (percent) -0.3 -0.3 … … … … … … … 10-year government bonds yield 0

diminish bank profitability. Thus far, deposit rates have been able to adjust downwards, preserving bank profitability as lending rates decreased, but there is likely to be a lower bound below which disintermediation occurs. At the same time, Euribor-linked lending rates are likely to continue to decline; this would imply an adverse impact on bank profitability unless lending growth picks up sufficiently to offset diminishing interest margins. A recent simulation by the Bank of Portugal estimated that a 100 basis point fall in Euribor rates would have a negative

-Siegel factors from the yields-only model, the industrial production gap, domestic inflation rate, and EURCZK exchange rate gap as endogenous variables. We treat the intercept, the EUR industrial production gap, the domestic inflation target, the EUR inflation rate, the German 10Y government bond yield, and the 3M EURIBOR rate as exogenous variables. The exogenous variables are explaining the development of macro-economic and financial variables abroad. We also regard the domestic inflation target of the Czech National Bank as exogenous. For a small and open economy

Mr. Jonathan F Manning and Maral Shamloo
We construct a Financial Conditions Index (FCI) for Greece as a surveillance tool to quantify the degree of the stress in the financial sector. We use principal component analysis to capture the information content of several financial indicators through a single index. We also construct an alternative FCI by purging the business cycle and monetary policy effects on the input variables, and argue that this alternative index is a better indicator of exogenous financial shocks, and thus could be interpreted as a measure of the efficacy of transmission mechanism. We replicate the index for the euro area (EA) as a whole and show that although the developments in the EA were qualitatively in line with those in Greece, they were quantitatively much milder. Our results confirm that monetary transmission was less effective in Greece compared to the EA as a whole. Finally, we argue that our index can be a potentially useful forecasting tool for credit growth.
Mr. Emil Stavrev, Mr. Thomas Harjes, and Mr. Martin Cihak
We analyze the European Central Bank's (ECB's) response to the global financial crisis. Our results suggest that even during the crisis, the core part of ECB's monetary policy transmission-from policy rates to market rates-has continued to operate, but at a decreased efficiency. We also find some evidence that the ECB's non-standard measures, namely the lengthening of the maturity of monetary policy operations and the provision of funds at the fixed rate, reduced money market term spreads, facilitating the pass-through from policy to market rates. Furthermore, the results imply that the substantial increase in the ECB's balance sheet may have contributed to a reduction in government bond term spreads.