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consumption following an inverted U-shape pattern. 1 For the average country, the estimated level of income per capita at which energy consumption is expected to saturate is about $144,000 (2011 US dollars)—still far into the future. An economy with a $45,000 per capita income today (for example, Germany) growing at 2 percent a year would take almost 60 years to reach this income level. Energy-saving technologies, however, can push the energy saturation point forward by shifting the energy-income curve down, since provision of the same energy services requires less

The Spring-Summer 2019 issue of the IMF Research Perspectives explores how technology deals with old questions. Articles discuss the ways technological progress and the increased availability of data have helped in some areas, while presenting new challenges for analyzing various matters. The issue also includes an interview with Gita Gopinath, the new director of the IMF Research Department.
Mr. Christian Bogmans, Lama Kiyasseh, Mr. Akito Matsumoto, and Mr. Andrea Pescatori
Not anytime soon. Using a novel dataset covering 127 countries and spanning two centuries, we find evidence for an energy Kuznets curve, with an initial decline of energy demand at low levels of per capita income followed by stages of acceleration and then saturation at high-income levels. Historical trends in energy efficiency have reduced energy demand, globally, by about 1.2 percent per year and have, thus, helped bring forward a plateau in energy demand for high income countries. At middle incomes energy and income move in lockstep. The decline in the manufacturing share of value added, globally, accounted for about 0.2 percentage points of the energy efficiency gains. At the country level, the decline (rise) of the manufacturing sector has reduced (increased) US (China) energy demand by 4.1 (10.7) percent between 1990 and 2017.
Mr. Christian Bogmans, Lama Kiyasseh, Mr. Akito Matsumoto, and Mr. Andrea Pescatori

. Energy saving technologies, in fact, can anticipate actual saturation by shifting down the energy-income curve because the same economic activities (such as heating, cooling, transports, …) require less energy while economies with a higher manufacturing share require relatively more energy. 10 Energy efficiency gains can come about through various mechanisms, including increased thermal efficiency of fossil fuel power plants and improved fuel economy of internal combustion engines. The next sections will offer a quantification of the Kuznets curve. III

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

income elasticity is close to one. At higher income levels, the elasticity starts to decline. Ultimately, as income keeps growing, the economy would reach a saturation point for energy demand; however, at an estimated $180,000 per capita (in 2011 US dollars) the saturation point looks, at current technology, to still be very far into the future. 5 Energy-saving technologies, however, can lead to faster actual saturation by shifting the energy-income curve downward because the same economic activities (such as heating, cooling, and transport) require less energy. In