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Mr. Francesco Caselli, Mr. Francesco Grigoli, Weicheng Lian, and Mr. Damiano Sandri
Using high-frequency proxies for economic activity over a large sample of countries, we show that the economic crisis during the first seven months of the COVID-19 pandemic was only partly due to government lockdowns. Economic activity also contracted because of voluntary social distancing in response to higher infections. We also show that lockdowns can substantially reduce COVID-19 infections, especially if they are introduced early in a country's epidemic. Despite involving short-term economic costs, lockdowns may thus pave the way to a faster recovery by containing the spread of the virus and reducing voluntary social distancing. Finally, we document that lockdowns entail decreasing marginal economic costs but increasing marginal benefits in reducing infections. This suggests that tight short-lived lockdowns are preferable to mild prolonged measures.
Mr. Francesco Caselli, Mr. Francesco Grigoli, Weicheng Lian, and Mr. Damiano Sandri

Contents 1 Introduction 2 Lockdowns and Voluntary Social Distancing 2.1 Impact on Mobility 2.1.1 Informing the Recovery 2.2 Impact on Job Postings 3 Lockdowns and COVID-19 Infections 4 Nonlinear Effects of Lockdowns 5 Conclusions References A Data Sources and Country Coverage List of Figures 1 High-Frequency Proxies of Economic Activity for the First Semester of 2020 2 Impact of a Full Lockdown on Mobility 3 Impact of Voluntary Social Distancing on Mobility 4 Contributions to the Mobility Decline 5 Impact of a Full

Jorge Alvarez and Carlo Pizzinelli

: jalvarez@imf.org ; cpizzinelli@imf.org . Contents I. Introduction II. Data Description III. The Covid-19 Shock From A Regional Perspective A. The Initial Impact B. The Uneven Recovery IV. Distributional Impact And Policies A. Employment and Income Losses B. Offsetting Policies V. Informality As A Margin Of Adjustment A. Informality Adjustment Margins B. Interaction with Sectoral Composition VI. The (Diminishing) Effects Of Lockdowns A. The Diminishing Effect of Lockdowns on Mobility B. The Diminishing Effect of Lockdowns

Mr. Francesco Caselli, Mr. Francesco Grigoli, Weicheng Lian, and Mr. Damiano Sandri

the first semester of 2019. The unemployment rate is computed as the average of the monthly unemployment rate over the first semester of 2020. Identifying the causal impact of lockdowns is a challenging task primarily because government measures were imposed in response to epidemiological developments, which in turn affect the economy. To alleviate this concern, the econometric specifications examine the effects of lockdowns while controlling for the stage of the epidemic. Specifically, we use local projections to regress the mobility index over the stringency

Mr. Edward F Buffie, Mr. Christopher S Adam, Luis-Felipe Zanna, and Mr. Kangni R Kpodar

Responses to the Covid-19 Pandemic 4. Health and Education Shocks 5. Public Investment Program 6. Summary: Macroeconomic Effects of Lockdown and Responses FIGURES 1. Baseline Shock 2. Fighting Back vs. Passive Baseline Response 3. Fighting Back with Domestic Financing 4. Domestic Financing with Reduced Maintenance Spending 5. Welfare: Covid-19 Shock and Fighting Back Strategies, Varying the Distributional Weight ζ 6. Welfare: Covid-19 Shock and Fighting Back Strategies, Varying the Social Discount Factor β s 7. The Tourism-Dependent Economy 8. The

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

economics resurfaced: Were the observed changes in trade volumes driven mostly by supply or demand effects? In our paper on lockdown spillovers during the pandemic, we separate the supply and demand channels and trace the effects of lockdown-related supply-side disruptions through the trade network. A high-frequency data set built from radio signals High-frequency data are key to tracking daily changes in lockdowns across the globe. Likewise, we estimate that more than 90 percent of international trade voyages take place in a period of less than 30 days

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

, although easing lockdowns can lead to a partial recovery, economic activity is likely to remain subdued until health risks abate. Meanwhile, countries should protect the most vulnerable and find ways to support economic activity compatible with social distancing, for example, by reducing contact intensity in the workplace and enhancing work from home where possible. This chapter also provides new evidence of the uneven effects of lockdowns, which are found to have a larger impact on the mobility of women and younger cohorts. This calls for targeted policy action to

Mr. Shekhar Aiyar, Mr. Davide Malacrino, Mr. Adil Mohommad, and Mr. Andrea F Presbitero

exporting and importing countries on bilateral trade. 5 With respect to this literature, we show evidence of the international spillover effects of lock-downs based on a large product-level dataset covering 98 reporting countries and 95% of global trade in goods over 18 months. With these data we can fully control for time-varying factors which could affect product-specific demand in different importing countries. We also investigate in detail the (lack of) persistence in lockdown spillovers and identify industries more exposed to containment policies. Exploting