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Mr. Sebastian Acevedo Mejia
This paper seeks to determine the effects that natural disasters have on per capita GDP and on the debt to GDP ratio in the Caribbean. Two types of natural disasters are studied –storms and floods– given their prevalence in the region, while considering the effects of both moderate and severe disasters. I use a vector autoregressive model with exogenous natural disasters shocks, in a panel of 12 Caribbean countries over a period of 40 years. The results show that both storms and floods have a negative effect on growth, and that debt increases with floods but not with storms. However, in a subsample I find that storms significantly increase debt in the short and long run. I also find weak evidence that debt relief contributes to ease the negative effects of storms on debt.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept. and International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
South Sudan is a very fragile post-conflict state and one of the most vulnerable countries in the world to climate-driven disasters. The pandemic reversed the economic recovery that followed the 2018 peace agreement. The oil price shock from the pandemic resulted in a massive loss of revenue, causing the government to run up expenditure arrears and resume monetary financing. This led to sharp exchange rate depreciation and runaway inflation. The policies implemented under a Staff Monitored Program (SMP) that was approved in March 2021 and supported by two disbursements under the RCF (in November 2020 and March 2021) have helped restore macroeconomic stability and eliminate a long-standing system of multiple exchange rates. Higher oil prices have dampened the effects of floods on lower oil production and sustained international reserves in the face of a rising import bill. The sharp rise in global food prices risks is exacerbating the dire humanitarian situation in South Sudan, where 70 percent of the population suffers from acute food insecurity, at a time when aid budgets are being cut.
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.

Fiscal Envelope (RHS) Under Climate Change Scenarios 4.8 Fiscal Effects of Flood and Drought in the Simulated Scenarios 4.9 Primary Balance (LHS) and Debt (RHS) Under Climate Scenarios with Natural Disaster TABLES 1.1 2020 Public Sector Balance Sheet 1.2 Outstanding On-Lending to Public Corporations (GEL m) 1.3 Impact of Non-Market SOEs on the 2020 Public Sector Balance Sheet 2.1. Economic Damages from Natural Disasters in Georgia 3.1 Transmission Channels to Supply Side 3.2 Climate Change Related Impacts on Public Finances 4.1 Primary Balance and

International Monetary Fund. African Dept. and International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department

Program (SMP) that was approved in March 2021 and supported by two disbursements under the RCF (in November 2020 and March 2021) have helped restore macroeconomic stability and eliminate a long-standing system of multiple exchange rates. Higher oil prices have dampened the effects of floods on lower oil production and sustained international reserves in the face of a rising import bill. The sharp rise in global food prices risks is exacerbating the dire humanitarian situation in South Sudan, where 70 percent of the population suffers from acute food insecurity, at a

International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
The Georgian Ministry of Finance (MoF) has continued to progress its analysis and reporting of fiscal risks, with its annual Fiscal Risk Statement (FRS) becoming the leading example in the region. In addition to detailed discussions of risks from SOEs and the balance sheet, amongst other, the December 2020 FRS included for the first time a qualitative discussion on the fiscal risks from climate change. Looking ahead, the government has committed to strengthening that further with the inclusion of quantitative estimates in the 2022 version of the FRS. This report provides the tools and analytical approaches to support that, as well as an update to the public sector balance (PSBS) sheet to identify the impact of the pandemic.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

, agricultural land), food insecurity and inflation are the main channels through which natural disasters, in particular floods, affects the DRC economy. A cross-country estimate form sub-Sahara Africa confirms sizeable and persistent macroeconomic effects of floods. 6. The real GDP growth loss averages 0.4 percentage points for floods in the year of occurrence . More specifically: Health : Floods in the DRC often spread diseases by contaminating drinking water and creating breeding grounds for mosquitoes which results in epidemics outbreaks (cholera, malaria). Worsening

International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

assistance to enhance its lending operations in selected sectors, such as water supply and sanitation, transport, and energy. Projects supported by the ADB in Azerbaijan have seen 240,000 people protected from the effects of flooding, while about 350,000 residents of regional and rural towns have received high-quality and reliable drinking water for the first time. The ADB has helped construct approximately 200 kilometers of new and upgraded highways and rural roads, benefiting the country’s entire population, and it has invested in improved power transmission to deliver