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International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.

Abstract

Fiscal risks remain significant in both advanced and emerging market and developing economies. Fiscal policy continues to play an essential role in building confidence and, where appropriate, sustaining aggregate demand. According to this issue of the Fiscal Monitor, strengthening fiscal frameworks—particularly to manage public finance risks and ensure debt sustainability—must be part of the fiscal policy response. Countries should seize the moment created by lower oil prices to start the process of energy taxation and energy subsidy reform. Finally, fiscal policy can contribute substantially to macroeconomic stability, through the workings of automatic stabilizers. By doing so, fiscal policy can also unlock significant growth dividends.

International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.

automatic stabilizers on output volatility: a .scal policy rule to constrain policy discretion, openness to trade, and a country’s ability to access financing. Sources: IMF Fiscal Rules database; World Bank; and IMF staff estimates. Note: Figure estimates use weighted least squares, with weights inversely proportional to the estimation error of the effectiveness coefficients. The number on the vertical axis is the ratio of the estimated impact of the scenario specified on the horizontal axis to the average effectiveness coefficient. For a list of advanced

Mr. Dennis J. Snower

ϛ = R v = 1 1 − ( 1 − σ T ) δ − σ T ⁢ δ 1 − ( 1 − σ T ) δ ⁢ φ ( 8 ⁢ b ) where φ = Φ/v. Define the “voucher ratio” as the ratio of the voucher to the original wage: ρ = v/w°. Furthermore, let θ = β ⁢ ϛ ( 8 ⁢ C ) be the “voucher effectiveness coefficient,” where ϛ takes into account that the voucher is

Mr. Dennis J. Snower
The paper examines the employment and unemployment implications of permitting unemployed people to use part of their unemployment benefits to provide employment vouchers to the firms that hire them. This opportunity to transfer unemployment benefits into employment subsidies--“benefit transfers” for short--would help replace the unemployment trap by an incentive to work. The vouchers rise with people’s unemployment durations and with the amount of training provided. The policy would be costless to the government since the cost of the employment vouchers is set equal to the amount saved on unemployment benefits. It would not be inflationary since the long-term unemployed, on whom the vouchers are targeted, have little influence on wage setting.
Mr. Van Can Thai

organizations, which hold the state monopoly of foreign trade, do not engage in production or distribution. 6 Usually the official or commercial exchange rates which serve in essence as an accounting device. Sometimes, these exchange rates are multiplied by some coefficients in an attempt to measure the profitability of an industry or a group of products. These are the “foreign trade effectiveness coefficients” or “foreign exchange multipliers” introduced in Hungary in the early 1960s; see Boltho (1971) . 7 Part of profits includes margins for foreign trade

Miss Nkunde Mwase

increase as move towards higher quantiles of the reserve holdings with some coefficients showing nonlinear pattern (e.g., the u-shaped pattern for the government effectiveness coefficient). Table 7 confirms these results and shows that some of the interquantile estimates for the coefficients are not constant across the various quantiles of the reserve distribution particularly for import share and government effectiveness. F-test findings comparing quantile regressions also support the finding that there is significant difference in the magnitude and sign of

Pierre Mandon

publication outlet explain the large variations among Chinese aid effectiveness estimates reported in the empirical literature. In particular, there is some evidence that Chinese aid is more effective when it is concessional and when its impact is assessed on economic outcomes. In contrast, studies that rely on a sample of African countries or use macro-level data report, on average, smaller aid effectiveness coefficients. Our contribution is threefold. First, we conduct the first MRA of the empirical literature on Chinese aid effectiveness, building on a meta

Pierre Mandon
This paper employs a meta-regression analysis of 473 estimates from 15 studies to take stock of the empirical literature on Chinese aid effectiveness. After accommodating publication selection bias, we find that, on average, Beijing’s foreign assistance has had a positive impact on economic and social outcomes in recipient countries but an opposite effect on governance, albeit negligible in size. We also show that (i) studies that fail to uncover statistically significant effects are less likely to be submitted to journals, or accepted for publication; and (ii) results are not driven by authors’ institutional affiliation. Differences in study characteristics such as the type of development outcome considered, how the Chinese aid variable is measured, the geographic region under study, and publication outlet explain the heterogeneity among Chinese aid effectiveness estimates reported in the literature.
Sanjay Reddy and Ms. Camelia Minoiu

interaction term is mostly insignificant, the aid-effectiveness coefficient remains positive, large, and statistically significant. B. Aid and the Policy Environment We also tested the conjecture that aid is more effective when specific macroeconomic policies are in place ( Burnside and Dollar, 2000 ; Collier and Dollar 2001 , 2002 ) To capture the policy environment, we experimented with the following measures: the original and updated Sachs-Warner policy variables ( Sachs and Warner, 1995 ; Wacziarg and Welch, 2003 ), and a policy index representing the

Sanjay Reddy and Ms. Camelia Minoiu
We analyze the growth impact of official development assistance to developing countries. Our approach is different from that of previous studies in two major ways. First, we disentangle the effects of two kinds of aid: developmental and non-developmental. Second, our specifications allow for the effect of aid on economic growth to occur over long periods. Our results indicate that developmental aid promotes long-run growth. The effect is significant, large and robust to different specifications and estimation techniques.