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Mr. Carlos M. Asilis
The increase in the U.S. public debt over the past twelve years raises questions about its implications for investment and economic growth. This paper places these developments within an international and historical context and quantitatively examines the implications of various measures of the current U.S. public debt-to-GDP ratio on economic growth. The analysis is undertaken through extensions of recently developed endogenous growth models. The results suggest that while higher levels of the public debt may affect long-run economic growth negatively, the order of magnitude is not large enough to be a cause for serious concern.
Mr. Julian T Chow, Ms. Florence Jaumotte, Mr. Seok G Park, and Ms. Yuanyan S Zhang
The recent strong, sustained appreciation of the U.S. dollar raises questions about possible financial spillover effects for emerging markets and developing countries. This report finds that, unlike past episodes, emerging markets’ vulnerability has improved along a number of dimensions, though some risks persist (as identified in this report).
International Monetary Fund

of social security liabilities. The results are of interest not only because, by providing bounds, they constitute a benchmark against which one can rule out some fiscal correction plans but also because of the sensitivity of growth effect calculations in nondebt settings.

Mr. Carlos M. Asilis

against which one can rule out some plans but also because of the sensitivity of growth effect calculations in non-debt settings. Our results suggest that while higher levels of the U.S. public debt may affect long-run economic growth negatively, the order of magnitude is not large enough to be a cause for serious concern ( Tables 5 and 7 ). Moreover, in our calculations, negative growth effects amount to at most a ten percent reduction in the rate of economic growth. Furthermore, this occurs at high levels of the debt to GDP ratio (in the 200 to 250 percent range

Mr. Julian T Chow, Ms. Florence Jaumotte, Mr. Seok G Park, and Ms. Yuanyan S Zhang

a broadly similar picture, but are somewhat less reliable because a larger share of foreign assets (and in a few cases liabilities) are in other (undefined) currencies and cannot be included. However, balance sheet effects for total net FX assets are typically more positive because non-debt foreign assets are typically in FX while non-debt foreign liabilities are mostly in domestic currency. One important caveat to these net balance sheet effect calculations is that the holders of foreign liabilities may not be the holders of foreign assets, so that the aggregate

International Monetary Fund

. The Compilation Guide on Financial Soundness Indicators (FSIs) has helped to clarify the definitions of FSIs used in FSAPs. Work is underway in the Bank to compile an additional set of indicators to help measure the functioning of financial markets, their level of development and accessibility, and the institutional environment. Recent FSAPs have used more sophisticated stress tests, increasing the use of scenarios and contagion effect calculations. Demand-side surveys and corporate sector assessments are being developed and used to strengthen the developmental

International Monetary Fund
This paper reports on developments in the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) since the last Board review of the FSAP in spring 2003 and discusses staff views of the programs evolution.
International Monetary Fund
The IMF Working Papers series is designed to make IMF staff research available to a wide audience. Almost 300 Working Papers are released each year, covering a wide range of theoretical and analytical topics, including balance of payments, monetary and fiscal issues, global liquidity, and national and international economic developments.