Search Results

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 21 items for :

  • "dynamics of external adjustment" x
Clear All
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

the average economy in the sample, allowing for changes in GVC integration or trade openness, one at a time, or both (net effect). Conclusions and Policy Implications The increasing complexity of international trade requires a granular analysis of cross-country linkages and exchange rates to understand the dynamics of external adjustment. As countries price their trade in currencies other than those of immediate trading partners or become more integrated into global value chains, the set of exchange rates that can impact a country’s external position

Mr. Pragyan Deb, Albe Gjonbalaj, and Mrs. Swarnali A Hannan

from China, which would act as an offsetting force. References: Caceres , C. , D. Cerdeiro , and R. Mano ( 2019 ), “ Trade Wars and Trade Deals: Estimated Effects using a Multi-Sector Model ”, IMF Working Paper 19/143 . Das , S. ( 2019 ), “ China’s Evolving Exchange Rate Regime ”, International Monetary Fund . IMF ( 2019 ), “ People’s Republic of China: 2019 Article IV Consultation ,” Washington, D.C. . IMF ( 2019a ), “ 2019 External Sector Report: The Dynamics of External Adjustment ,” Washington, D.C. . IMF

Mr. Eugenio M Cerutti, Shan Chen, Mr. Pragyan Deb, Albe Gjonbalaj, Mrs. Swarnali A Hannan, and Mr. Adil Mohommad

, and A. Mohommad ( 2019 ), “ Global Market Segmentation due to U.S.China Trade Tensions ,” IMF Working Paper (forthcoming) IMF ( 2019a ), “ World Economic Outlook: Growth Slowdown, Precarious Recovery,” April 2019 , Washington, D.C. . IMF ( 2019b ), “ 2019 External Sector Report: The Dynamics of External Adjustment ,” Washington D.C. . IMF ( 2019c ), “ G-20 Staff Note on Global Imbalances ,” Washington, D.C. . IMF ( 2018 ), “ 2018 External Sector Report: Tackling Global Imbalances amid Rising Trade Tensions ,” Washington, D

Ms. Enrica Detragiache, Mr. Christian H Ebeke, La-Bhus Fah Jirasavetakul, Koralai Kirabaeva, Mr. Davide Malacrino, Florian Misch, Mr. Hyun Park, and Ms. Yu Shi

Regional Misallocation: Evidence from Italian and German Provinces ”, NBER Working Paper No. 25612 . International Monetary Fund (IMF) , 2012 , “ Euro Area Imbalances ,” Annex to Umbrella Report for G-20 Mutual Assessment Process . https://0-www-imf-org.library.svsu.edu/external/np/g20/pdf/map2012/annex2.pdf International Monetary Fund (IMF) , 2019 , “ 2019 External Sector Report (ESR): The Dynamics of External Adjustment ”, International Monetary Fund , Washington DC . International Monetary Fund (IMF) , 2015 , “ Germany – Selected Issues ,” IMF Country Report

Mr. Pragyan Deb, Albe Gjonbalaj, and Mrs. Swarnali A Hannan
China’s current account surplus has declined significantly from its peak in 2008 and the external position in 2018 was in line with medium-term fundamentals and desirable policies. While cyclical factors and expansionary credit and fiscal policies contributed, the trend decline has been largely structural, driven by economic rebalancing from investment to consumption, appreciation of the real effective exchange rate (REER) towards equilibrium, increase in outbound tourism, and moderation in goods surplus reflecting market saturation and China’s faster growth compared with trading partners. Policies should focus on continued rebalancing and opening up to ensure excessive surpluses do not return, and to prepare the economy and the financial system to handle more volatile capital flows. From a global perspective, the decline in China’s surplus has lowered global imbalances, but with different impact across countries. The analysis is based on data as of July 2019.
Mr. Eugenio M Cerutti, Shan Chen, Mr. Pragyan Deb, Albe Gjonbalaj, Mrs. Swarnali A Hannan, and Mr. Adil Mohommad
The trade discussions between the U.S. and China are on-going. Not much is known about the shape and nature of a potential agreement, but it seems possible that it would include elements of managed trade. This paper attempts to examine the direct, first-round spillover effects for the rest of the world from managed trade using three approaches. The results suggest that, in the absence of a meaningful boost in China’s domestic demand and imports, bilateral purchase commitments are likely to generate substantial trade diversion effects for other countries. For example, the European Union, Japan, and Korea are likely to have significant export diversion in a potential deal that includes substantial purchases of U.S. vehicles, machinery, and electronics by China. At the same time, a deal that puts greater emphasis on commodities would put small commodity exporters at a risk. This points to the advantages of a comprehensive agreement that supports the international system and avoids managed bilateral trade arrangements.
Ms. Enrica Detragiache, Mr. Christian H Ebeke, La-Bhus Fah Jirasavetakul, Koralai Kirabaeva, Mr. Davide Malacrino, Florian Misch, Mr. Hyun Park, and Ms. Yu Shi
A hypothetical European Minimum Wage (MW) set at 60 percent of each country’s median wage would reduce in-work poverty but have limited effects on overall poverty, as many poor households do not earn a wage near MW and higher unemployment, higher prices, and a loss of social insurance benefits may erode direct benefits. Turning to competitiveness, since the MW increase to reach the European standard would be larger in euro area countries with excessive external surpluses, the associated real appreciation should help curb existing imbalances. However, a few countries with already weak external positions would experience an undesirable real appreciation.
Uroš Herman and Tobias Krahnke
In this paper, we investigate whether a firm’s composition of foreign liabilities matters for their resilience during economic turmoil and examine which characteristics determine a firm’s foreign capital structure. Using firm-level data, we corroborate previous findings from the (international) macroeconomic literature that the composition of foreign liabilities matters for a country’s susceptibility to external shocks. We find that firms with a positive equity share in their foreign liabilities were less affected by the global financial crisis and also less likely to default in the aftermath of the crisis. In addition, we show that larger, more open, and more productive firms tend to have a higher equity share in total foreign liabilities.
Uroš Herman and Tobias Krahnke

. Raviv ( 1991 ). The Theory of Capital Structure . Journal of Finance 46 ( 1 ), 297 – 355 . Herman , U. and M. Lozej ( 2021 ). Cross-border bank funding and lending in a monetary union: Evidence from Slovenia . Journal of International Money and Finance, 102376 . International Monetary Fund ( 2019 ). External Sector Report, July 2019: The Dynamics of External Adjustment . International Monetary Fund ( 2020 ). External Sector Report, August 2020: Global Imbalances and the COVID-19 Crisis . Kalemli-Ozcan , S. , L. Laeven

Mariana Colacelli, Deepali Gautam, and Cyril Rebillard

? ” Asian Economic Policy Review , Vol. 13 , pp. 149 – 68 . International Monetary Fund , 2018 , “ Japan: 2018 Article IV Consultation – Staff Report ,” Country Report 18/333 , International Monetary Fund . International Monetary Fund , 2019 , “ The Dynamics of External Adjustment ,” External Sector Report , International Monetary Fund . International Monetary Fund , 2020 , “ Global Imbalances and the COVID-19 Crisis ,” External Sector Report , International Monetary Fund . International Monetary Fund , 2020a , “ Japan: 2019 Article IV