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Mr. Chris Papageorgiou and Mr. Nikola Spatafora

Episodes and Output Volatility (1962–2010) 16. Trade Diversification and Growth 17. Growth and Diversification Before and After 1990 within LICs 18. Trade Diversification and Growth: LICs vs. Benchmarking Countries 19. Diversification Spurts and Growth Accelerations Executive Summary Limited diversification in exports and the broader structure of the economy has been an underlying characteristic of many low-income countries (LICs). Concentration in sectors with limited scope for productivity growth and quality upgrading, such as primary commodities, may

International Monetary Fund

Diversification in Six Case Studies 12. Quality Upgrading in Six Case Studies 13. Export Experimentation 14. Export Product Diversification and Growth 15. Export Product Diversification Spurts and Growth Accelerations in LICs 16. Probability of Effectiveness for Drivers of Growth 17. Quality Upgrading and GDP per capita Growth, 1995-2010 18. Additional GDP per capita Growth in Fast Convergers 19. Decomposing Productivity Growth 20. Agriculture Productivity Gap and Income, 2005 21. Sectoral Reallocation and Productivity in Asia vs. SSA, 1990-2010 22

International Monetary Fund

among all countries. Since then, non-fragile LICs have enhanced their average quality level, with the manufacturing sector leading the way. However, fragile LICs have not been able to converge in quality during the same period and remain among the lowest quality exporters in the world. This fragile/non-fragile pattern may partly underlie the marked difference in these two groups’ annual GDP per capita growth since 1990 (1.1 vs. 3.4 per cent). Export Product Diversification Spurts and Growth Accelerations Source: IMF staff calculations. Moreover, while

Mr. Chris Papageorgiou and Mr. Nikola Spatafora

are evaluated simultaneously, thus filling a gap in the existing literature, which has treated them independently. In addition, the analysis focuses on “diversification spurts”, that is, rapid, sustained, significant spells of diversification. Trade diversification can be achieved along several dimensions . First, diversification may occur across either products or trading partners. Second, product diversification may occur through the introduction of new product lines (the extensive margin), or a more balanced mix of existing exports ( intensive margin

Mr. Chris Papageorgiou and Mr. Nikola Spatafora
Limited diversification is an underlying characteristic of many low-income countries (LICs). Concentration in sectors with limited scope for increases in productivity and quality may result in less broad-based and sustainable growth. Moreover, lack of diversification may increase exposure to adverse external shocks and macroeconomic instability. The SDN will have three objectives. First, to review and extend the evidence, from the existing literature and ongoing IMF work, that points to diversification as a crucial aspect of the development process. A major focus will be on cross-country and cross-regional differences in the pace of diversification. Second, to draw lessons from the experiences of those countries that have successfully diversified their economies. Third, to analyze the relationship between diversification, growth, and volatility.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

determinant of economic growth in LICs. In a similar vein, diversification spurts have been associated with subsequent growth gains ( IMF 2014a , 2014b ). 3. Diversification would also increase growth inclusiveness . Employment in Liberia has been concentrated in the agricultural sector (almost half of total employment, and around three-quarters among the rural population). Around one-quarter of the employed workforce is in the wholesale and retail trade sector, more so in urban areas. Manufacturing (6.5 percent of total employment) and the capital-intensive mining

International Monetary Fund
Diversification and structural transformation play important roles in influencing the macroeconomic performance of low-income countries (LICs). Increases in income per capita at early stages of development are typically accompanied by a transformation in a country’s production and export structure. This can include diversification into new products and trading partners as well as increases in the quality of existing products.
Mr. Chris Papageorgiou

, which has treated them independently. In addition, the analysis focuses on “diversification spurts”—that is, rapid, sustained, and significant episodes of diversification. Trade diversification can be achieved along several dimensions. First, diversification may occur across either products or trading partners. Second, product diversification may occur through the introduction of new product lines (extensive margin) or a more balanced mix of existing exports (intensive margin). Finally, product-quality upgrading represents a slightly different notion and is

Ahuja Ashvin

Abstract

The key features of frontier and developing Asia’s development experience since the mid-1990s are its impressive growth performance and relatively well-contained inflation.1 During 1995–2012, the median growth rate for frontier and developing Asia has consistently been more robust and less volatile than that in emerging market Asia (Figure 9.1). However, on the inflation front, frontier and developing Asia does not appear to have enjoyed “the great moderation” before the global financial crisis in 2008 like many of the emerging market economies. Nevertheless, the inflation experience has also become more homogeneous across frontier and developing Asia, both in level and volatility (Figure 9.2).

Mr. Itai Agur

Abstract

Frontier economies have grown rapidly since the turn of the century. While GDP growth rates have varied considerably among the countries in this group, their average growth and inflation rates have been generally higher compared with emerging market economies (Figure 2.1).1 But whether the current trajectories of frontier economies will eventually lead to emerging markets and then middle-income status depends on tackling a number of structural deficiencies and containing the buildup of macroeconomic and financial risks in the transition.