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Marulanda, and Manuel Rosales Torres. Contents SCARRING EFFECTS OF THE PANDEMIC ON THE ECCU A. Introduction B. Output Losses and Economic Structure C. Fiscal Legacies from COVID D. Conclusions References Data Description TABLES 1. Annual Real GDP Losses 2. Cumulative Real GDP Losses Between 2020–22, Health Component 3. Regression on Cumulative Real GDP Losses Between 2020–22, Education Component 4. Difference in Debt-to-GDP Projections Between January 2022 WEO and October 2019, Sectoral Composition of Output 5. Difference in Debt-to-GDP
are a strong predictor of the worsening of debt as a percent of GDP. However, even after accounting for output losses, countries that lie in the top quartile of tourism contribution to GDP have higher debt accumulation than countries that are not as dependent on tourism ( Table 4 ). Consequently, tourism-dependent economies are experiencing a dual shock of larger output losses exacerbating their debt-to-GDP ratios, and more debt accumulation that is not directly attributable to output losses. Table 4. Difference in Debt-to-GDP Projections Between January 2022