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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Eastern Caribbean Currency Union: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This Selected Issues paper focuses on scarring effects of the pandemic on the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union’s (ECCU). Assessing the extent of the scarring effects is essential for the conduct of future economic policy in the ECCU. A better understanding of the factors affecting the scarring effects and their fiscal implications could help inform the discussions on policies needed to overcome them, especially for economies with limited economic diversification and high vulnerability to frequent shocks and natural disasters such as the ECCU countries. The significant output contraction would generate scarring effects in the ECCU countries. The degree of scarring could vary with countries’ economic structure and policy responses to the pandemic. ECCU countries need to balance difficult tradeoffs to mitigate scaring effects of the pandemic, other recent shocks, and limited fiscal policy space. In the short term, the priorities are to continue health spending to cope with the pandemic and use effective social transfers to cope with rising living costs. In the medium term, moving from income support and job retention measures to adopting active labor market policies would facilitate the reallocation of workers and resources to their most productive uses and help foster productivity growth.
Keywords:
responsibility framework; ECCU country; difference in Debt-to-GDP projection; B. output loss; Real GDP loss; Fiscal rules; Natural disasters; COVID-19; Fiscal stance; Global; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Front Matter
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Marulanda, and Manuel Rosales Torres. Contents SCARRING EFFECTS OF THE PANDEMIC ON THE ECCU A. Introduction B. Output Losses and Economic Structure C. Fiscal Legacies from COVID D. Conclusions References Data Description TABLES 1. Annual Real GDP Losses 2. Cumulative Real GDP Losses Between 2020–22, Health Component 3. Regression on Cumulative Real GDP Losses Between 2020–22, Education Component 4. Difference in Debt-to-GDP Projections Between January 2022 WEO and October 2019, Sectoral Composition of Output 5. Difference in Debt-to-GDP

Keywords:
DISASTER-PRONE country; Real GDP loss; support variable; Fiscal governance; Fiscal rules; Natural disasters; Monetary unions; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Eastern Caribbean Currency Union: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

are a strong predictor of the worsening of debt as a percent of GDP. However, even after accounting for output losses, countries that lie in the top quartile of tourism contribution to GDP have higher debt accumulation than countries that are not as dependent on tourism ( Table 4 ). Consequently, tourism-dependent economies are experiencing a dual shock of larger output losses exacerbating their debt-to-GDP ratios, and more debt accumulation that is not directly attributable to output losses. Table 4. Difference in Debt-to-GDP Projections Between January 2022

Keywords:
output loss; ECCU country; debt accumulation; variables GDP; WEO Interest Payments Projections; Tourism; Fiscal stance; Fiscal space; Caribbean