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Mr. Dirk V Muir
Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden form a tightly integrated region which has strong ties with the euro area as well as some exposure to Russia. Using the IMF’s Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal model (GIMF), we examine spillovers the region could face, focusing on possible scenarios from the rest of the euro area and Russia, and the fall in global oil prices. We show that the spillovers from these scenarios differ in magnitude and impact, regardless of the high degree of integration among the four Nordic economies. These differences are driven by the fact that Denmark and Finland have no independent monetary policy, and Denmark and Norway are net energy exporters while Finland and Sweden are energy importers. We infer lessons for policy from the outcomes.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

2.5. United States and Emerging Asia: Oil Demand (Share in world demand, in percent) Sources: U.S. Energy Information Association; and IMF staff calculations. Figure 2.6. Emerging Asia: Metal and Soy Demand (Share in world demand, in percent) Sources: World Bureau of Metal Statistics; and U.S. Department of Agriculture. Empirical Analysis The contributions of the various drivers of inflation, including food and energy prices but also other factors, can be assessed in a framework that takes into account international linkages. The

Ms. Carolina Osorio Buitron and Ms. Filiz D Unsal

regional factors emerging from trade relationships or financial linkages. Figure 4. United States and Emerging Asia: Oil Demand (Share in world demand, in percent) Sources: U.S. Energy Information Association; authors’ calculations. Figure 5. Emerging Asia: Metal and Soy Demand (Share in world demand, in percent) Sources: World Bureau of Metal Statistics, U.S. Department of Agriculture; authors’ calculations. To determine the relative contributions of various factors to inflation it is thus necessary to conduct an empirical analysis which

Ms. Carolina Osorio Buitron and Ms. Filiz D Unsal
The perception that Asia's inflation dynamics is driven by idiosyncratic supply shocks implies, as a corollary, that there is little scope for a policy reaction to a build-up of inflationary pressures. However, Asia's fast growth and integration over the last two decades suggest that the drivers of inflation may have changed, and that domestic demand pressures may now play a larger role than in the past. This paper presents a quantitative analysis of inflation dynamics in Asia using a Global VAR (GVAR) model, which explicitly incorporates the role of regional and global spillovers in driving Asia's inflation. Our results suggest that over the past two decades the main drivers of inflation in Asia have been monetary and supply shocks, but also that, in recent years, the contribution of these shocks has fallen, whereas demand-side pressures have started to emerge as an important contributor to inflation in Asia.
Pelin Berkmen

, and 23 percent are labor income tax revenues. The corresponding revenues for the rest of the world are 30, 10, 30 percent. Commodity endowments and demand share parameters are calibrated such that Argentina’s commodity output is about 17 percent of GDP, and commodity exports are 10.2 percent of GDP. Commodity sector is defined in general terms and covers a wide range of agricultural and energy products. 70 percent of commodity revenues are assumed to accrue to domestic factors of production, 15 percent of the remainder goes to foreign privates sector and the rest

Mr. Dirk V Muir

and gas from the United States leads to a rebalancing in the global energy market. This is combined with a contracting demand for energy in emerging market economies only the global price of energy drops by almost 30 percent in the short run, tapering down to a permanent decline of 10 percent. 80 percent of the short run effect on the oil price is attributable to the boost in supply, and only 20 percent to the fall in demand. Over the medium term, the demand share of the oil price decrease falls to zero. This boosts real GDP in the rest of the world. The euro area

Mr. Michael Kumhof and Stijn van Nieuwerburgh
This paper develops a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium monetary portfolio choice model that accomplishes two objectives. First, it provides a theory of currency risk premia based on a weak and plausible form of fiscal nonneutrality. Domestic and foreign bonds become imperfect substitutes, the uncovered interest parity condition is replaced with a portfolio balance equation, and the central bank can separately choose the growth rate of its nominal anchor and the domestic bond interest rate. Second, it can turn be shown that, and how, sterilized intervention affects equilibrium allocations and prices.
Mr. Michael Kumhof and Stijn van Nieuwerburgh

policies. We begin with monetary policy. A target path for money growth { μ t } } t = 0 ∞ enters the money evolution equation (1) as before. The domestic debt quantity rule (14) is however replaced, based on the conjecture that we will find a determinate portfolio demand share for domestic currency bonds n t q . In that case once-and-for-all changes in the market nominal interest rate i q can be effected through once-and-for-all changes in the nominal bond supply Q , or equivalently through the setting of an exogenous policy interest rate i ^ t q . We will

Mr. Yongzhen Yu
Major mining commodity prices are inherently volatile and cyclical. High levels of investment in China have been a key driver in the strong world demand for minerals and metals over the past decade. The urbanization and industrialization of China has been an important factor behind the increase in domestic demand and high investment growth, while its export sector is also an important source of growth and plays a critical role as a catalyst. Activity in infrastructure, construction, real estate, and automobile manufacturing all contribute to the strong demand for minerals. Over the next five years, the Chinese demand is expected to remain strong, supported by investment and gradually rising consumption rates. However, in the second part of this decade economic growth in China could slow down. For Latin American countries, export receipts should remain strong over the next five years and beyond, given the continued strong demand from China.