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Mr. Rabah Arezki, Valerie A Ramey, and Liugang Sheng

of future resource and output increases. In contrast, when the resources are immediately available the current account-GDP ratio turns only slightly negative for couple of years and the saving-GDP ratio is always positive. The saving-GDP ratio rises because households smooth their consumption over time since the shock is not permanent. The slight decline in the current account-GDP ratio is due to the rising investment-GDP ratio, as shown in the lower left graph, which makes the response of the current account-GDP ratio for the immediate availability case different

International Monetary Fund

Front Matter Page Research Department Contents Summary I. Introduction II. A Dynamic Model of the Current Account III. Current Account Dynamics IV. Conclusions and Policy Implications Appendix: The Reduced-Forms’ Coefficients in Terms of Fundamental Parameters References Tables: 1. Parameter Values 2. Simulations Figures: 1a. Effects of a Productivity Change on the Current Account-GDP Ratio 1b. Effects of a Productivity Change on the Wealth Accumulation-GDP Ratio 2a. Effects of Altering the Productivity-Change Process on

Mr. Enrique G. Mendoza and Ceyhun Bora Durdu

. Baseline Results: State-Contingent and Non-State-Contingent Price Guarantees V. Normative Implications and Sensitivity Analysis A. Normative Implications of the Baseline Simulations B. Sensitivity Analysis VI. Conclusions References Figures 1. Equilbrium in the Asset Market 2. Ergodic Distributions of Domestic Equity and Bond Holdings 3. Consumption and Current Account-GDP Ratio Impact Effects of a Negative Productivity Shock in the Sudden Stop Region of Equity & Bonds 4. Conditional Responses to a Negative, One-Standard-Deviation Productivity