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Camila Casas, Mr. Federico J Diez, Ms. Gita Gopinath, and Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas
Most trade is invoiced in very few currencies. Despite this, the Mundell-Fleming benchmark and its variants focus on pricing in the producer’s currency or in local currency. We model instead a ‘dominant currency paradigm’ for small open economies characterized by three features: pricing in a dominant currency; pricing complementarities, and imported input use in production. Under this paradigm: (a) the terms-of-trade is stable; (b) dominant currency exchange rate pass-through into export and import prices is high regardless of destination or origin of goods; (c) exchange rate pass-through of non-dominant currencies is small; (d) expenditure switching occurs mostly via imports, driven by the dollar exchange rate while exports respond weakly, if at all; (e) strengthening of the dominant currency relative to non-dominant ones can negatively impact global trade; (f) optimal monetary policy targets deviations from the law of one price arising from dominant currency fluctuations, in addition to the inflation and output gap. Using data from Colombia we document strong support for the dominant currency paradigm.
Mr. Andreas Billmeier and Ms. Dalia S Hakura
The analysis in this paper suggests that import and export volume elasticities are markedly lower in oil-exporting Middle East and Central Asian countries than in non-oil countries in the region. A key implication of this finding is that a real appreciation of the exchange rate in oil-exporting countries would achieve little in terms of expenditure switching: an appreciation does not boost imports and non-oil exports constitute only a small share of GDP and total trade in these countries. Therefore, while a real appreciation lowers the current account surplus of oil-exporting countries through valuation effects, the contribution to lowering global imbalances may be more limited.
International Monetary Fund
The paper finds that simple econometric specifications yield surprising rich and complex dynamics -- relative prices respond to the nominal exchange rate and pass-through effects, import and export volumes respond to relative price changes, and the trade balance responds to changes in import and export values.
Mr. Eliot Kalter and Mr. Armando P. Ribas
This paper discusses the role of a country’s fiscal stance in weakening the financial underpinnings of an open economy with a quasi-fixed nominal exchange rate, even where the overall fiscal deficit remains unchanged, or even narrows. The paper cites the role of expanding government operations in reducing the relative price of traded goods. A marked increase in government expenditure and taxation is associated with increased production costs, excess demand for nontraded goods, and a deterioration in the financial health of the traded goods sector. The paper demonstrates that, in contrast to the current economic situation in Mexico, the period leading to the 1994 crisis closely parallels these stylized facts.
Ms. Zuzana Murgasova
This paper examines the factors underlying the stability of inflation observed following devaluations of the Spanish peseta, which took place during the 1992-93 Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) crisis. The long-run equilibrium relationships between the exchange rate and the aggregate price indices are estimated using the Johansen maximum likelihood-method. The short-run dynamics are obtained from error-correction models. The model is then simulated by calibrating changes in the exogenous variables to their actual values. The results indicate that the cost-push-up effect of devaluations may have been completely offset by determinants of the cyclical position of the economy and the low inflation rate in 1993-94 should not be viewed as unusual.