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Karim Barhoumi, Seung Mo Choi, Tara Iyer, Jiakun Li, Franck Ouattara, Mr. Andrew J Tiffin, and Jiaxiong Yao
The COVID-19 crisis has had a tremendous economic impact for all countries. Yet, assessing the full impact of the crisis has been frequently hampered by the delayed publication of official GDP statistics in several emerging market and developing economies. This paper outlines a machine-learning framework that helps track economic activity in real time for these economies. As illustrative examples, the framework is applied to selected sub-Saharan African economies. The framework is able to provide timely information on economic activity more swiftly than official statistics.
Ms. Françoise Le Gall, Mr. Roland Daumont, and François Leroux

Front Matter Page IMF Institute Contents I. Introduction II. Overview of Banking Crises III. Sources of Banking Crises A. The Operating Environment B. Market Structure and the Government’s Imprint C. Unsound Conduct of Banks IV. Conclusions Text Tables 1. Episodes of Banking Crisis in Sub-Saharan Africa 2. Senegal: Summary Situation of the Banking System, 1988 3. Monetary Performance: Selected Indicators, 1985–95 4. The Macroeconomic Environment: Selected Indicators, 1985–95 5. Number of Local Banks and NBFIs in Selected

Karim Barhoumi, Seung Mo Choi, Tara Iyer, Jiakun Li, Franck Ouattara, Mr. Andrew J Tiffin, and Jiaxiong Yao

to Track the Real-Time Impact of COVID-19 in Sub-Saharan Africa Prepared by Karim Barhoumi, Seung Mo Choi, Tara Iyer, Jiakun Li, Franck Ouattara, Andrew Tiffin, and Jiaxiong Yao 1 Table of Contents I. Introduction II. Related Literature III. Now casting Framework A. Stage 1: Selecting Predictors B. Stage 2: Selecting the Best Model (“Horseracing”) C. Stage 3: Nowcasting D. Illustrative Examples IV. The COVID-19 Crisis in Sub-Saharan Africa V. Conclusion VI. References VII. Appendix: Concepts and Tools in Machine Learning The

The serious economic and financial problems affecting African countries are both generic in that they are common to other developing countries and specific in that some are peculiar to sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The papers prepared for this symposium more than adequately delineate the global or aggregative factors that have caused the present crisis in sub-Saharan Africa. The first oil price increase worsened the terms of trade of oilimporting SSA countries as it did of other oil-importing developing countries. SSA countries, as the papers bring out

Charles Applegate and Ms. Susan Fennell

1986 with the aim of reaching agreement by the time of the 1986 Annual Meetings. The crisis in sub-Saharan Africa continued to preoccupy the Governors. Bank President A.W. Clausen pointed out that, despite the upturn in the world economy, output in sub-Saharan Africa had declined in 1984 for the third year in succession. The seriousness of Africa’s debt burden was also noted; in some countries debt service amounted to well over one half of export earnings. It was generally agreed that efforts to reverse the economic decline in Africa must continue to have high

Milton A. Iyoha

discussion of the scope, nature, and severity of the debt crisis in sub-Saharan Africa. The section that follows presents a specification, estimation, and discussion of an econometric model of external debt and economic growth for the region. The basic model consists of two stochastic equations explaining output and investment, and two identities (a capital accumulation identity and a debt accumulation identity). The simultaneous-equations model is estimated by the two-stage least-squares technique. The model is dynamically simulated in the penultimate section, which also

Maria Cristina Germany

international interest rates shocks, war, and drought have contributed to the crisis in sub-Saharan Africa, but weak economic management—beginning in the 1970s—was also a major cause. Bad investments and inappropriate domestic policies weakened domestic economic productivity, reduced flexibility to respond to shocks, and left a legacy of debt service that began to absorb a growing share of both domestic and foreign resources. Weak policy-implementing capacity also impeded improved economic performance. The Reforms The case for reforms was too strong to ignore. By the

Ibrahim A. Elbadawi

sub-Saharan Africa and in turn induce the required investment and efficiency for growth. With the above background in mind, this paper focuses on assessing the impacts of external debt overhang on growth and investment. The paper uses a simple simulation model that establishes the levels of sustainable debt ratios consistent with growth revival to levels commensurate with the requirements for reversing the deep economic crisis in sub-Saharan Africa. The overarching theme is that restoration of solvency for HIPCs rests squarely on raising growth by reducing the

Karim Barhoumi, Seung Mo Choi, Tara Iyer, Jiakun Li, Franck Ouattara, Mr. Andrew J Tiffin, and Jiaxiong Yao

. USGDP = United States’ GDP. IndiaGDP = India’s GDP. DiamondsExports = Botswana’s Diamonds Exports. Inflation = Botswana’s Inflation. Imports = Botswana’s Imports. RealEffectiveExchangeRate = Botswana’s Real Effective Exchange Rate. GoogleSVITravelBotswana = Botswana’s Google SVI (Travel). ChinaGDP = China’s GDP. IV. The Covid-19 Crisis in Sub-Saharan Africa Sub-Saharan Africa has faced an unprecedented health and economic crisis . The second quarter of 2020 has been particularly damaging with a year-on-year growth rate of -8.5 percent ( Figure 9 ). Since