Valentina Flamini, Pierluigi Bologna, Fabio Di Vittorio, and Rasool Zandvakil
Credit is key to support healthy and sustainable economic growth but excess aggregate credit growth can signal the build-up of imbalances and lead to systemic financial crisis. Hence, monitoring the credit cycle is key to identifying vulnerabilities, particularly in emerging markets, which tend to be more exposed to sudden external shocks and reversal in capital flows. We estimate the credit cycle in Central America, Panama, and the Dominican Republic and find that the creadit gap is a powerful predictor of systemic vulnerability in the region. We simulate the activation of the Basel III countercyclical capital buffers and discuss the macroprudential policy implications of the results, arguing that countercyclical macroprudential policies based on the credit gap could prove useful to enhance the resilience of the region’s financial sector but the activation of macroprudential instruments should also be informed by the development of other macrofinancial variables and by expert judgment.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This paper examines the dimensions in which Uruguay’s financial development is lagging, and the benefits that might accrue if obstacles to development in these areas were removed. The analysis focuses on the frictions affecting firms’ access to credit, corporate credit deepening, and the efficiency of financial intermediation in Uruguay, and quantifies the potential economic benefits of relaxing these constraints, with implications for firms and households alike. The paper also lays out the basic premises of the model, together with some facts to illustrate different elements of it. The paper presents the results of the calibration and comparative statics exercise. The last section concludes with a discussion of measures that have been taken by the Uruguayan authorities recently, which may alleviate some of the constraints emphasized in the model. The challenge is to implement these measures in a way that maximizes their effectiveness. This may require communication campaigns targeting the youth, elderly and low-income segments of the population, to ensure the widest reach, particularly outside Montevideo.
C. Trends in Financial Development Indices
D. Financial Gaps
E. Enhancing Private CreditDeepening in Uganda
1. Financial Development’s Contribution to Growth, the Reduction in Growth Volatility, and Financial Stability
1. Access to Financial Services
2. Access of Firms to Financial Services
3. Financial Development Index
1. Estimated Equations
ISSUES IN INTERNATIONAL TAXATION
A. Executive Summary
C. Tax Incentives and Exemptions
D. Three Sources of Tax
–23 (€ Millions)
8. Consolidated General Government Fiscal Operations, 2013–23 (Percent of GDP)
9. Summary of Accounts of the Financial System, 2013–18
10. Balance of Payments, 2013–23
11. Financial Soundness Indicators of the Banking Sector, 2010–17
I. Risk Assessment Matrix
II. Public Debt Sustainability Analysis
III. External Debt Sustainability Analysis
IV. External Sector Assessment
V. Implementation of Past IMF Recommendations
VI. Implementation of FSAP Recommendations
I. Impediments to CreditDeepening
Balkan countries, except perhaps in Croatia. Box 3.1 discusses the state of nonbank financial deepening in the Western Balkan countries.
A Rocky Start to Bank CreditDeepening
The process of bank deepening in Emerging Europe in the 1990s was not smooth. Countries found it challenging to establish market-based financial systems because of the need to simultaneously undertake macroeconomic stabilization as well as financial and operational restructuring of banks and firms. New legal and institutional frameworks also had to be put in place ( Barisitz 2009 ). As