Recoveries from recessions associated with a financial crisis tend to be sluggish. In this paper, we present evidence that stressed credit conditions are an important factor constraining the pace of recovery. In particular, using industry-level data, we find that industries relying more on external finance grow more slowly than other industries during recoveries from recessions associated with financial crises. Additional tests, based on establishment size, on alternative definitions of financial crises, and on corporate-government interest rate spreads, support the findings. Moreover, for subsets of industries where financial frictions are more severe, we find much stronger differential growth effects.
function on output after 2 years. (A similar effect happens to the SBS if the investment grade yield is excluded). However, monetary policy remains ineffectual. In summary, both corporate yields and SBS creditcondition seem to be important (and somewhat substitutable) channels through which financial conditions impact output. However it is clear that the SLOS remains important even if the investment grade spread is included. In light of these results in the remainder of this analysis our benchmark model will include only SLOS as the credit variable.
IV. T iming
This paper uses a disequilibrium framework to investigate a possible credit crunch in the East Asian crisis countries (Indonesia, Korea, and Thailand) during 1997-98. It defines a credit crunch as a situation in which interest rates do not equilibrate supply and demand for credit and the aggregate amount is supply constrained, i.e. there is quantity rationing. In all three countries, rising real interest rates and weakening economic activity lowered credit demand and (with the exception of Indonesia in late 1997) there is little evidence of quantity rationing at the aggregate level—although individual firms may have lost access to credit.
This paper discusses key findings of the First Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement for Mongolia. The paper reveals that economic activity in Mongolia is slowing and inflation is falling, broadly in line with what was anticipated at the time the program was approved. The authorities’ strong policy implementation is working to stabilize the economy. The biweekly foreign exchange auctions are also working well, and the authorities remain committed to allowing exchange rate flexibility in line with market conditions.
Mr. Jonathan David Ostry and Mr. Eduardo Borensztein
This paper addresses two questions relating to the output decline in Poland since the initiation of market-oriented reforms at the beginning of 1990. First, to what extent is the decline in output a generalized phenomenon, rather than reflecting the short-term effects of resource reallocation in response to the new relative price structure? Second, what have been the main macroeconomic determinants of the output decline? In response to the first question, the paper finds relatively little evidence to favor a “structural change” view of the output decline. As far as the second question is concerned, the paper finds that both supply-side and demand-side factors have played a role, depending on the specific time period being considered.