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Eugen Tereanu
This paper applies intertemporal models of precautionary saving to compute an optimal level of international reserves for The Gambia. The analysis focuses on current account shocks specific to a low-income economy with a significant import component and complements a more standard, rule-of-thumb reserve adequacy assessment. The results suggest a central range from 4.5 months to 7 months of imports, which is broadly aligned with the recent actual coverage. Notwithstanding parameter sensitivity, the simulations allow for more informed policy decisions that balance flexibility with a prudent approach to reserve use.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

FIGURES 1. Assets and Revenues of the Reserve Fund, end-2016 2. NPV of contributions and pensions, by salary level and contribution period 3. Population Pyramids, 2015 and 2050 4. Closing the Gap with Additional Contributors 5. Impact of Individual Reforms on the IVM Balance 6. IVM Pension System Balance Under Reform Scenarios TABLES 1: INSS Current Contribution Rates 2. INSS Revenue and Expenditure, 201216 3: Coverage indicators for INSS 4. Pension Systems in Central America and the Dominican Republic, 2015 5. Illustrative Reform Packages

International Monetary Fund

. The legislative process 37. Communication 38. Decentralization and local development 39. Regional development CONCLUSION: Key Findings Tables Table 1: Change in vaccination coverage indicators Table 2: Change in selected microfinance indicators, 2005-2009 Table 3: List of selected PRSP-II Indicators, October 2010 Table 4: Share as percentage of real GDP, 2005-2009 Figures Chart 1: Change in the volume of grain production, 2005-2009 Chart 2: Ratio of irrigated production to total agricultural production, 2005-2009 Chart 3: Change in the

International Monetary Fund

GDP growth Table 3 Comparison of the growths of the primary, secondary, and tertiary sectors Table 4 SWOL analysis of gender in growth policies Table 5 SWOL analysis on institutional development Table 6 Rate of deconcentration of the staffs of ministries Table 7 SWOL analysis on land management Table 8 SWOL analysis of public financial management Table 9 Development of the monitoring of CSO activities by the CADB Table 10 Reduction in the incidence of income poverty from 2001 to 2010, by area Table 11 Summary of coverage indicators 2006

International Monetary Fund

indicators TABLE 14: Immunization coverage indicators