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Cover IMF Working Papers
Structural Vulnerabilities and Currency Crises
Swart R. Ghosh and Mr. Atish R. Ghosh
This paper examines the role of structural factors—governance and rule of law, corporate sector governance (creditor rights and shareholder rights), corporate financing structure—as well as macroeconomic variables in currency crises. Using a technique known as a binary recursive tree allows for interactions between the various explanatory variables. It is found that structural vulnerabilities play an important role in the occurrence of “deep” currency crises (those with a real GDP growth decline of at least 3 percentage points) and that there are complex interactions between these structural vulnerabilities and macroeconomic imbalances.
Keywords:
WP; currency crisis; crisis country; debt-equity ratio; current account deficit; short-term debt; Currency crises; structural indicators; corporate governance; binary recursive trees; balance of payments crisis; crisis definition; cash flow; creditor right; crisis case; BOP crisis; countries in the sense; governance index; probability of a crisis; country surveillance work; Current account deficits; Current account balance; Public sector; East Asia
Cover Policy Papers
Financial Sector and Bilateral Surveillance - Toward Further Integration
International Monetary Fund
The Fund has continued to make great efforts to enhance financial sector focus and analytics in bilateral surveillance. The main initiatives include enhancing collaboration with other multilateral institutions, improving analytical tools and methodologies, and a major strengthening of the financial sector capabilities in area departments. The fruits of these efforts are already visible in the better treatment of financial sector issues in Article IV reports
Keywords:
PP; market; Article IV; fund; staff report; Article IV report; banking system; IMF-World Bank LIC Financial Group; FSAP finding; government securities market; excess reserves; market country; monetary policy; Article IV mission; market development; Financial sector; Financial Sector Assessment Program; Stress testing; Financial sector stability; Early warning systems; Global
Cover Policy Papers
Public Investment Management Assessment - Review and Update
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
Public Investment Management Assessments (PIMAs) are the IMF‘s key tool for assessing infrastructure governance over the full investment cycle and supporting economic institution building in this area. The PIMA framework was first introduced in the 2015 Board Paper on “Making Public Investment More Efficient,” as part of the IMF’s Infrastructure Policy Support Initiative (IPSI). A key motivation for its development has been that strong infrastructure governance is critical for public investment to spur economic growth. PIMAs offer rigorous assessment of infrastructure governance, that is, the key public investment management (PIM) institutions and processes of a country. On the basis of the PIMAs conducted to date, this paper summarizes the lessons learned and updates the assessment framework itself. PIMAs summarize the strengths and weaknesses of country public investment processes, and set out a prioritized and sequenced reform action plan. The PIMA framework has been well-received by member countries, with over 30 PIMAs conducted to date (mainly in emerging markets (EMs) and low income developing countries (LIDCs), and a pipeline of new requests in place; eight PIMAs have been or are about to be published. The PIMAs conducted show that there is much room for strengthening PIM, with weaknesses spread across the investment cycle. The results and recommendations of several PIMAs have been used in IMF lending, surveillance, and capacity development (CD) work, and have improved support and coordination among CD providers. While leaving the structure of the 2015 framework unchanged, the revised PIMA framework highlights some critical governance aspects more prominently. In particular, it brings out more fully some key aspects of maintenance, procurement, independent review of projects, and the enabling environment (e.g., adequacy of the legal framework, information systems, and staff capacity). Yet, the revised PIMA retains the key features of the 2015 framework, including the three-phase structure (planning, allocation, and implementation) with five institutions assigned to each phase, three dimensions under each institution, and three possible scores under each dimension (i.e., not/partially/fully met). The revision has benefitted from extensive stakeholder feedback, including from IMF teams, World Bank staff, and country authorities.
Keywords:
PP; country authorities; infrastructure governance; investment institution; priority reform; reform priority; section IV; efficiency gap; fund member country; department comment; member country request; investment efficiency; country group; Public Investment Management Assessment (PIMA); Public investment spending; Public investment and public-private partnerships (PPP); Budget planning and preparation; Infrastructure; Africa; Middle East and Central Asia; Europe; Western Hemisphere; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Survey
IMF must adapt to meet strategic challenges
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.

in an evenhanded way across the membership. Regional and global surveillance should play an increasing role and be better integrated with country surveillance. Work on financial sectors and international capital markets should be strengthened further to reduce vulnerabilities and promote financial stability . This work, including financial sector assessments, should be more fully integrated into surveillance and other activities. This should be complemented by advice to members on ways to improve access to international capital markets and on orderly capital

Keywords:
SV; SDR interest rate; Group of Seven finance ministers; IMF quota; IMF operation; IMF's effectiveness; IMF's financing; IMF's commitment; IMF's activity; Financial sector stability; International capital markets; Global
Cover IMF Survey
IMF Survey, Volume 34, Issue 07
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
The Web edition of the IMF Survey is updated several times a week, and contains a wealth of articles about topical policy and economic issues in the news. Access the latest IMF research, read interviews, and listen to podcasts given by top IMF economists on important issues in the global economy. www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/home.aspx
Keywords:
SV; SDR interest rate; Group of Seven finance ministers; IMF quota; IMF finance department; growth facility; IMF publication service; Oil prices; Poverty reduction; Oil consumption; Debt relief; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa; Africa; Asia and Pacific; Central America
Cover IMF Working Papers
External Vulnerability in Emerging Market Economies: How High Liquidity Can Offset Weak Fundamentals and the Effects of Contagion
Mr. Christian B. Mulder and Mr. Matthieu Bussière
This paper investigates the factors behind the 1994 and 1997 crises and whether these can explain the 1998 crisis. The study reveals that: (i) variables used in an Early Warning System model developed by IMF staff scored well in predicting the 1998 crisis out-of-sample; (ii) all three crisis episodes can be well explained by a parsimonious set of core fundamentals and liquidity related variables; and (iii) the presence of an IMF-supported program significantly reduced the depth of crises. The results suggest that as a rule of thumb countries should hold reserves to the tune of short-term debt to avoid contagion-related crises, provided their current deficits are modest and their real effective exchange rates are not significantly misaligned.
Keywords:
WP; short-term debt; exchange rate; economic crisis; reserve; Vulnerability indicators; economic crises; emerging markets; lending boom variable; crisis index; EWS variable; short-term debt debt ratio; exchange rate appreciation; reserves variable; Current account deficits; Credit; Real exchange rates; Real effective exchange rates; Early warning systems; Asia and Pacific; Africa
Cover Policy Papers
Manual on Fiscal Transparency, revised April 2007
International Monetary Fund
The Manual, which is a companion document to the IMF’s Code of Good Practices on Fiscal Transparency (2007), has been revised to reflect the new Code and to provide more recent examples of good practice by individual countries. The Manual expands and explains the pillars and principles of the Code and provides richer and more in-depth coverage of each good practice. Country examples are taken from Reports on Standards and Codes (ROSCs). The Manual also includes new linkages to the Guide on Resource Revenue Transparency (2007), including reporting on contracts, quasi-fiscal activities and use of public assets.
Keywords:
PP; accounting system; central government; balance sheet; final accounts; fiscal policy; annual budget; internal audit; accrual basis; natural resources; local government; debt management; government guarantee; Budget planning and preparation; Fiscal accounting and reporting; Europe; Asia and Pacific; South America; Eastern Europe; Africa
Cover Policy Papers
The 2017 Joint Review of the Standards and Codes Initiative
International Monetary Fund
The standards and codes (S&C) initiative was launched in the aftermath of the emerging market crises of the 1990s as part of efforts to strengthen the international financial architecture, with a focus on emerging markets. The initiative has aimed at promoting international standards and codes to improve economic and financial resilience by assisting countries in strengthening their economic institutions and informing World Bank and IMF work. The four previous reviews confirmed a fairly high appreciation of the overall initiative, while also raising questions about the initiative’s link to surveillance and capacity development efforts, weak uptake by market participants, as well as a need to improve traction with policy makers. This review reaffirms the country authorities’ appreciation for S&C work, and its focus and scope are guided by the February 2017 paper.