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International Monetary Fund

growth rate for Hungary than its current growth rate of 4 percent? 3. This chapter describes a simple empirical model that provides such benchmarks, and uses them to evaluate Hungary’s growth and current account performance . The model, described in more detail in a forthcoming working paper, was developed to explore whether larger current account deficits allow lower-income countries of the EU to converge more quickly to the income levels of advanced EU countries. It also recognizes that, while growth can be influenced by the running of external deficits, the

Mr. Michael Frenkel and Mr. Christiane Nickel
In this paper, we use a structural vector autoregression model to identify and compare demand and supply shocks between euro area countries and central and eastern European countries (CEECs). The shocks and the shock adjustment dynamics of these countries are also compared to EU countries that currently do not participate in the EMU. Focusing on the period 1993-2001, we find that there are still differences in the shocks and in the adjustment process to shocks between the euro area and the CEECs. However, several individual CEECs exhibit shocks and shock adjustment processes that are fairly similar to some euro area countries.