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Mrs. Esther Perez Ruiz and Mr. Uffe Mikkelsen
This paper investigates the asymmetries in trade spillovers from sector-specific technology shocks in China to selected euro area countries. We use a Ricardian-gravity trade model to estimate sectoral competitiveness in individual euro area countries. Simulations on the impact of productivity shocks in Chinese textiles and machinery suggest that the required adjustment in wages, prices, and factor re-allocation is widely heterogenous across euro area countries on accounts of their different specialization patterns. This raises the question of the distribution of gains and losses from external trade shocks.
Ms. Margaret Cotton and Gregory Dark
This technical note is the second of three addressing information technology (IT) themes and issues relevant to tax administrations. This note addresses how to select a suitable IT system for core tax administration functions. Note one covers the use of IT in tax administrations and how to develop an information technology strategic plan (ITSP). The third note focuses on implementation of a commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) system. These technical notes are primarily for tax administrations that have no technology to manage their core tax processes, or their technology is limited and outdated. These notes focus on core tax functions and do not address other business systems (e.g., payroll, finance, document, and asset management systems).
India's planned pension reform will set up a proper regulatory framework for the pension industry and open up the sector to private fund managers. Drawing on international experiences, the paper highlights pre-conditions for the reform to kick-start financial development, including: (i) the buildup of critical mass; (ii) sufficiently flexible investment guidelines and regulations, including on investments abroad; and (iii) concurrent reforms in capital markets. Given the limited scale of the planned reform, the key challenge for India is to achieve sufficient critical mass early on. Options to address this challenge include granting permission for existing workers to switch to the new system or outsourcing all or part of the reserves of private sector provident funds to the new pension fund managers.
Mr. Sebastian Acevedo Mejia, Mr. Trevor Serge Coleridge Alleyne, and Rafael Romeu
The Cuban revolution and the subsequent US embargo on Cuba helped shape the tourism sector in the Caribbean, facilitating the birth and growth of alternative destinations. Therefore, the apprehension of the Caribbean tourism industry towards a change in US travel policy to Cuba is understandable, but likely unwarranted. The history of tourism in the region has shown that it is possible for all destinations to grow despite large changes in market shares. Our estimations show that liberalizing US-Cuba tourism could result in US arrivals to Cuba of between 3 and 5.6 million, most of it coming from new tourists to the region. We also identify the destinations most at risk of changes in US-Cuba relations.
International Monetary Fund
Conventional fiscal accounting methodologies do not appropriately account for governments’ noncash policies, such as their contingent liabilities. When these liabilities are called, budget costs can be large, as evidenced by the United States’ saving and loan crisis. In general, deficit measures may underestimate the macroeconomic impact of government policies, promoting the substitution of noncash for cash expenditure and increasing future financing requirements. The paper describes extended deficit measures to address the problem, but notes their limited practical value. Nonetheless, some alternative methods of valuing contingent liabilities are proposed to gauge fiscal impact and facilitate budgetary control.