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Nicoletta Batini, Mario di Serio, Matteo Fragetta, and Mr. Giovanni Melina
This paper provides estimates of output multipliers for spending in clean energy and biodiversity conservation, as well as for spending on non-ecofriendly energy and land use activities. Using a new international dataset, we find that every dollar spent on key carbon-neutral or carbon-sink activities can generate more than a dollar’s worth of economic activity. Although not all green and non-ecofriendly expenditures in the dataset are strictly comparable due to data limitations, estimated multipliers associated with spending on renewable and fossil fuel energy investment are comparable, and the former (1.1-1.5) are larger than the latter (0.5-0.6) with over 90 percent probability. These findings survive several robustness checks and lend support to bottom-up analyses arguing that stabilizing climate and reversing biodiversity loss are not at odds with continuing economic advances.
Nicoletta Batini, Mario di Serio, Matteo Fragetta, and Mr. Giovanni Melina

conservation spending and was later used for publications in Nature and PNAS. Conversations with Frank Hawkins, Thomas Lovejoy, Juha Siikamaki, John Tobin, Andrew Karolij, Michael Jenkins, Patrick McGuire and Charlotte Kaiser helped us navigate in the ‘jungle’ of global conservation finance. Hanbo Hi provided excellent research assistance in collecting macroeconomic data. Financial support by UK’s FCDO is gratefully acknowledged. We are grateful also to Roberto Buizza, Andrea Roventini, the Dasgupta Review team, and many IMF and World Bank colleagues for their useful

Mr. Michael Kell

present, there is a cap for overall discretionary spending, as well as separate caps for highway, mass transit, and conservation spending, but at different times during the 1990s, either a single cap for all discretionary spending or separate caps for different spending categories have applied. The legislation allows for breaches of the caps in the case of “emergencies.” Pay-as-you-go (PAYGO): The PAYGO requirement covers tax receipts and mandatory, or direct, spending. Mandatory spending is controlled by permanent laws and includes Medicare, Medicaid, unemployment

International Monetary Fund

law and represents roughly one-third of total federal outlays, including almost all defense expenditure, salaries and other operating expenses of government, and many grant programs. The BEA defines limits (or “caps”) in nominal terms for specific discretionary spending categories for each fiscal year over a five-year period, with separate caps set for budget authority and actual outlays. Presently, there is a cap for overall discretionary spending, as well as separate caps for highway, mass transit, and conservation spending, but at different times during the 1990s

Nicoletta Batini, Mario di Serio, Matteo Fragetta, and Mr. Giovanni Melina

subsidies to sustainable and land regenerative goals is key for policymaking and budgetary decisions. The impulse responses in Figure 3 indicate that the effect of a shock to conservation spending is long-lasting, similarly to the shock to green spending in the energy sector, implying that for this sector too, the economic contribution of a stimulus can generate durable economic benefits, in addition to the mitigation and carbon-sink gains from preserving wildlife. By contrast, the effect of a spending shock to support industrial farming activities is considerably

International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper presents updated IMF staff estimates of potential output growth for the United States, using data through 2001 that incorporates the full cyclical upswing of the 1990s and the subsequent mild recession, as well as taking into account the revisions to the national accounts released in July 2000. The paper also reviews recent investment trends and provides estimates of the extent to which the capital stock has deviated from its long-term equilibrium.