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International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Abstract

The economic recovery in sub-Saharan Africa is expected to continue, but at a slower pace than envisaged in October 2018. This weaker outlook reflects domestic and external challenges. On the external side, the global expansion is losing momentum, including in China and the euro area, trade tensions remain elevated, global financial conditions have tightened, and commodity prices are expected to remain low. On the domestic front, security challenges, climate shocks, and policy uncertainty are hampering investment and weighing on economic prospects in several countries. Under current policies, medium-term average growth for the region is expected to continue to fall well short of what is needed to absorb the new entrants to the labor force and to deliver limited gains in living standards.

Miss Mahvash S Qureshi

. Distribution of societal and international conflict in neighbors, 1948–2006 Table 3. Estimation results for conflict presence, world sample (1948–2006) Table 4. Estimation results for conflict intensity, world sample (1948–2006) Table 5. Estimation results for border weighted conflict, world sample (1948–2006) Table 6. Estimation results for conflict presence, subsamples (1948–2006) Table 7. Estimation results for conflict intensity, subsamples (1948–2006) Table 8. Estimation results for border weighted conflict presence, subsamples (1948–2006) Table 9

Mr. Philip Barrett

Front Matter Page Middle East and Central Asia Department The Fiscal Cost of Conflict: Evidence from Afghanistan 2005-2016 Prepared by Philip Barrett 1 Contents 1 Introduction 2 Related Literature 3 Data 3.1 Data on conflict 3.2 Data on revenues 3.3 Other data 4 Ordinary least squares estimates 4.1 Conflict intensity 4.2 Dynamic equation estimates 4.3 Local projections 4.4 Decomposing the sources of revenue losses 4.5 Dynamic equation with lagged shocks 5 Instrumental variables 5.1 The instrument

Xiangming Fang, Siddharth Kothari, Mr. Cameron McLoughlin, and Mustafa Yenice

-Related Deaths in Different Types of Conflicts 7. Conflict Exit Probablities 8. Persons of Concern from Sub-Saharan Africa 9. People of Concern Based on Country of Origin vs. Number of Conflict-Related Deaths 10. Destination of Sub-Saharan African Refugees, 2018 11. Sub-Saharan Africa: Average Growth Rate by Country Type 12. Impulse Response of per Capita GDP in Response to Shock to Conflict Intensity 13. Per-capita GDP Around Conflict Episodes 14. Sub-Saharan Africa: Cumulative Change in Debt-to-GDP Ratio during Conflict Episodes TABLES 1. Sub

Xiangming Fang, Siddharth Kothari, Mr. Cameron McLoughlin, and Mustafa Yenice

a persistent decline in the productive capacity of an economy. Results from the local projection method suggest that an increase in conflict intensity to the top quartile reduces per-capita GDP by about 4¾ percent relative to trend in the first year, with the negative effect growing to almost 6.5 percent in the next 4 years. Counterfactual analysis based on event studies around large conflict episodes confirm the large and persistent impact of conflict on real GDP per capita. In tandem with growth, public finances also deteriorate significantly following

Xiangming Fang, Siddharth Kothari, Mr. Cameron McLoughlin, and Mustafa Yenice
Sub-Saharan Africa has been marred by conflicts during the past several decades. While the intensity of conflicts in recent years is lower than that observed in the 1990s, the region remains prone to conflicts, with around 30 percent of the countries affected in 2019. In addition to immeasurable human suffering, conflicts impose large economic costs. On average, annual growth in countries in intense conflicts is about 2.5 percentage points lower, and the cumulative impact on per capita GDP increases over time. Furthermore, conflicts pose significant strains on countries’ public finances, lowering revenue, raising military spending, and shifting resources away from development and social spending.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Conflict-Related Deaths, 1989–2017 Sources: Uppsala Georeferenced Event Dataset; and IMF staff calculations. Note: Based on verified fatalities. To the extent that news reports and historical sources miss conflict events, estimates may be a lower bound. MENA = Middle East and North Africa. The number of conflict-related deaths in relation to total population—a measure of conflict intensity— also shows a varying trend over time. In eight sub-Saharan African countries, on average, the ratio of conflict-related deaths to population was in the top quartile of the

Mr. Philip Barrett

, resulting in 97,902 deaths. 9 Figure 1 shows the nationwide fatality rate from violence per 10,000 of national population, a measure of conflict intensity. Using nationwide conflict intensity as a guide, one can tell the history of the Afghan conflict since the fall of the Taliban in four approximate periods: 2002-2005, 2006-2009, 2010-2013, and 2014-2016. The divisions between these periods are indicated by the vertical lines in the Figures 1 - 3 . Figure 1: Nationwide deaths 10,000 in Afghanistan Figure 2: Deaths and injuries from conflict in Afghanistan

Mr. Philip Barrett
I use a monthly panel of provincially-collected central government revenues and conflict fatalities to estimate government revenues lost due to conflict in Afghanistan since 2005. I identify causal effects by instrumenting for conflict using pre-sample ethno-linguistic share. Headline estimates are very large, implying total revenue losses since 2005 of $3bn, and future revenue gains from peace of about 6 percent of GDP per year. Reduced collection efficiency, rather than lower economic activity, appears to be the key channel. OLS estimates understate the causal effect by a factor of four. Comparing to estimates from Powell’s (2017) generalized synthetic control method suggests that this bias results from omitted variables and measurement error in equal share. The findings underscore the considerable economic loss due to conflict, and the importance of careful identification in measuring this loss.