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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Peru: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

prices and incomes change . This chapter compares the macroeconomic adjustment in Chile, Colombia, and Peru in response to fluctuations in commodity prices. This comparison is relevant as these are commodity exporters’ emerging economies (mainly copper for Chile and Peru, and oil for Colombia) that are comparable in size and have sound macroeconomic frameworks in place, including fiscal rules and inflation-targeting regimes. 3. First, macroeconomic responses to a commodity ToT shock are estimated . Using a vector auto-regression methodology (VAR), the implications of

Keywords:
ISCR; CR; commodity; Peru; exchange rate; commodity exporters' emerging economies; oil price decline; tot shock; FX intervention; commodity tot shock; Commodity price shocks; Commodity prices; Current account; Current account deficits; Commodity price fluctuations
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Adjustment to Commodity Price Shocks in Chile, Colombia, and Peru
Mr. Francisco Roch
This paper presents a comparative analysis of the macroeconomic adjustment in Chile, Colombia, and Peru to commodity terms-of-trade shocks. The study is done in two steps: (i) an analysis of the impulse responses of key macroeconomic variables to terms-of-trade shocks and (ii) an event study of the adjustment to the recent decline in commodity prices. The experiences of these countries highlight the importance of flexible exchange rates to help with the adjustment to lower commodity prices, and staying vigilant in addressing depreciation pressures on inflation through tightening monetary policies. On the fiscal front, evidence shows that greater fiscal space, like in Chile and Peru, gives more room for accommodating terms-of-trade shocks.
Keywords:
WP; commodity price; commodity; Chile; Peru; Commodity Prices; Fiscal Policy; Flexible Exchange Rates; Colombia; Peru t; commodity exporters' emerging economies; oil price decline; large commodity price shock; shock to commodity price; country-specific commodity price index; propagation mechanism of commodity price shock; contribution of commodity price; effects of commodity-price fluctuation; Colombia t; adjustment to commodity price; Commodity price shocks; Current account; Technology transfer; Current account deficits; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Peru: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This Selected Issues paper presents a comparative analysis of the macroeconomic adjustment in Chile, Colombia, and Peru to commodity terms-of-trade shocks. The study is done in two steps: (1) an analysis of the impulse responses of key macroeconomic variables to terms-of-trade shocks and (2) an event study of the adjustment to the recent decline in commodity prices. The experiences of these countries highlight the importance of flexible exchange rates to help with the adjustment to lower commodity prices, and staying vigilant in addressing depreciation pressures on inflation through tightening monetary policies. On the fiscal front, evidence shows that greater fiscal space, like that of Chile and Peru, gives more room for accommodating terms-of-trade shocks.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; commodity; Peru; exchange rate; commodity price; exchange rate volatility; investment spending; loan dollarization; commodity transfer pricing; Public investment spending; Public investment and public-private partnerships (PPP); Capital spending; Exchange rates; Dollarization; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Colombia: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Colombia
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This paper discusses key issues related to the Colombian economy. Despite adverse global circumstances, Colombia’s successful policies and inclusive growth agenda continued in 2015. Colombia’s strong policy framework helped ensure an orderly adjustment to the deteriorated external conditions. Although the medium-term outlook is favorable, it is surrounded by downside risks. The main near-term risks stem from Colombia’s still significant near-term external financing needs and potential capital inflow reversals, the result of volatile global financial conditions. On the upside, bringing the peace process to fruition could further improve business confidence and capital inflows, reinforcing the recovery that will follow the necessary adjustment process.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; middle; government; inflation expectation; deficit; anchor inflation expectation; terms of trade shock; exchange rate depreciation; oil price shock; Current account deficits; Depreciation; Public sector; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Adjustment to Commodity Price Shocks in Chile, Colombia, and Peru
Mr. Francisco Roch

, the prices of metals and oil declined after 2011 and mid-2014, respectively. Through deteriorating ToT, the shock resulted in lower national incomes, wider current account deficits, and weaker national currencies. Large ToT movements can have important implications for macroeconomic performance as relative prices and incomes change. This paper compares the macroeconomic adjustment in Chile, Colombia, and Peru in response to fluctuations in commodity prices. This comparison is relevant as these are commodity exporters’ emerging economies (mainly copper for Chile

Keywords:
WP; commodity price; commodity; Chile; Peru
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Colombia: Staff Report for the 2016 Article IV Consultation
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

. This comparison is relevant as these are commodity exporters’ emerging economies (copper for Chile and Peru, and oil for Colombia), which are comparable in size and feature sound macroeconomic frameworks (with both fiscal rules and inflation-targeting regimes in place). Moreover, given that the adjustment started earlier in Chile and Peru, this analysis could inform about the expected response in Colombia. A. The impact of the shock in Colombia Impact of Oil Shock 2013 2014 2015 2016 (proj.) Oil-related investment (US$ bn

Keywords:
ISCR; CR; middle; government; inflation expectation; deficit; output gap; gradual adjustment; GDP deflator; potential GDP; soft landing; Current account deficits; Depreciation; Global