Narrow Your Choices

Refine By Type

Refine By Countries

Refine By Topic

Refine By Series

Refine By Language

Refine By Date

—

Refine By IMF Taxonomy

Refine By JEL Taxonomy

Refine by LOC Taxonomy

Refine By THEMA Taxonomy

  • Print
  • Save

Search Results

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 66 items for :

  • "commodity export price index" x
Clear All
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Dynamic Effects of Commodity Prices on Fiscal Performance in Latin America
Leandro Medina
The recent boom and bust in commodity prices has raised concerns about the impact of volatile commodity prices on Latin American countries’ fiscal positions. Using a novel quarterly data set-which includes unique country-specific commodity price indices and a comprehensive measure of public expenditures-this paper analyzes the dynamic effects of commodity price fluctuations on fiscal revenues and expenditures for eight commodity-exporting Latin American countries. The results indicate that Latin American countries’ fiscal positions react strongly to shocks to commodity prices, yet there are marked differences across countries. Fiscal variables in Venezuela display the highest sensitivity to commodity price shocks, with expenditures reacting significantly more than revenues. At the other end of the spectrum, in Chile expenditure reacts very little to commodity price fluctuations, and the dynamic responses of its fiscal indicators are very similar to those seen in high-income commodity-exporting countries. This distinct behavior across countries may relate to institutional arrangements, which in some cases include the efficient application of fiscal rules amid political commitment and high standards of transparency.
Keywords:
WP; commodity; country; commodity export price index
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Dynamic Effects of Commodity Prices on Fiscal Performance in Latin America
Leandro Medina

exports of 21 commodities for each country in 1975 and assign a weight to each commodity by dividing the value of the commodity’s exports in 1975 by this total value. The weights are then held constant for the rest of the exercise and are applied to the world prices of the same commodities. Collier and Goderis (2007) construct a commodity export price index composed of agricultural and nonagricultural commodities at a yearly frequency with fixed commodity export weights; to allow the effect of commodity export price to be greater for countries with higher exports

Keywords:
WP; commodity; country; commodity export price index
Cover IMF Working Papers
Front Matter
Leandro Medina
Keywords:
WP; commodity; country; commodity export price index
Cover IMF Working Papers
After the Boom–Commodity Prices and Economic Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean
Bertrand Gruss
After skyrocketing over the past decade, commodity prices have remained stable or eased somewhat since mid-2011—and most projections suggest they are not likely to resume the upward trend observed in the last decade. This paper analyzes what this turn in the commodity price cycle may imply for output growth in Latin America and the Caribbean. The analysis suggests that growth in the years ahead for the average commodity exporter in the region could be significantly lower than during the commodity boom, even if commodity prices were to remain stable at their current still-high levels. Slower-than-expected growth in China represents a key downside risk. The results caution against trying to offset the current economic slowdown with demand-side stimulus and underscore the need for ambitious structural reforms to secure strong growth over the medium term.
Keywords:
WP; commodity; commodity price; commodity exporter; output; Global VAR (GVAR); commodity prices; output growth; Latin America; food commodity; price scenario; commodity export price index; commodity supply; commodity outlook; commodity-price VARX; commodity price projection; commodity mix; commodity spot prices; commodity exporters of LAC; price outlook; Production growth; Commodity price indexes; Commodity price fluctuations; Global; Caribbean
Cover IMF Working Papers
International Commodity Prices and Domestic Bank Lending in Developing Countries
Isha Agrawal, Rupa Duttagupta, and Mr. Andrea F Presbitero
We study the role of the bank-lending channel in propagating fluctuations in commodity prices to credit aggregates and economic activity in developing countries. We use data on more than 1,600 banks from 78 developing countries to analyze the transmission of changes in international commodity prices to domestic bank lending. Identification relies on a bankspecific time-varying measure of bank sensitivity to changes in commodity prices, based on daily data on bank stock prices. We find that a fall in commodity prices reduces bank lending, although this effect is confined to low-income countries and driven by commodity price busts. Banks with relatively lower deposits and poor asset quality transmit commodity price changes to lending more aggressively, supporting the hypothesis that the overall credit response to commodity prices works also through the credit supply channel. Our results also show that there is no significant difference in the behavior of foreign and domestic banks in the transmission process, reflecting the regional footprint of foreign banks in developing countries.
Keywords:
WP; commodity price; price index; asset quality; bank lending; commodity sector; Commodity prices; Macro-financial linkages; Developing countries; sensitivity measure; commodity export; price change; interaction term; commodity export price index; bank health; quality indicator; bank level; bank characteristic; bank ownership; Commodity price fluctuations; Bank credit; Credit; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Commodity Windfalls, Polarization, and Net Foreign Assets: Panel Data Evidenceon the Voracity Effect
Markus Bruckner and Mr. Rabah Arezki
This paper examines the effect that windfalls from international commodity price booms have on net foreign assets in a panel of 145 countries during the period 1970-2007. The main finding is that windfalls from international commodity price booms lead to a significant increase in net foreign assets, but only in countries that are homogeneous. In polarized countries, net foreign assets significantly decreased. To explain this asymmetry, the paper shows that in polarized countries commodity windfalls lead to large increases in government spending, political corruption, and the risk of expropriation, with no overall effect on GDP per capita growth. The paper's findings are consistent with theoretical models of the current account that have a built-in voracity effect.
Keywords:
WP; commodity; revenue windfall; country; Commodity Windfalls; Net Foreign Assets; Polarization; Political Economy; commodity windfall; world commodity supply; exported commodity goods lead; hydrocarbon commodity price; commodity price boom; Foreign assets; Commodity prices; Export price indexes; Private investment; Africa; Global