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Mr. Amine Mati, Ms. Monique Newiak, and James Wilson
This paper focuses on identifying potential asymmetric responses of non-commodity output growth in times of positive and negative commodity terms-of-trade shocks. Using a sample of 27 oil-exporting countries and a panel VAR method, the study finds: 1) the short-and medium-run response of real non-commodity GDP growth is larger for negative shocks than positive shocks; 2) this asymmetry is more pronounced in countries with weak pre-existing fundamentals–high levels of public debt and low levels of international reserves–which also serve to amplify the volatility of the response; 3) the output response to positive shocks is stronger following a sustained period of CTOT increases, while the impact of negative shocks on output are more damaging when they occur after a period of CTOT decline.
Mr. Amine Mati, Ms. Monique Newiak, and James Wilson

Elasticity of Non-Commodity Real GDP to Commodity Price Changes G. Variance decomposition H. Robustness Check: Testing for Real Government Consumption Figures 1. Oil Exporters: Cumulative Change in Annual Real Non-Commodity, Non-Agricultural GDP Growth, 1970–2016 2. Oil Exporters: Cumulative Change in Annual Real Non-Commodity, Non-Agricultural GDP Growth, 1970–2016 – Large shocks 3. Real non-commodity, non-agricultural GDP Response 4. Real non-commodity, non-agricultural GDP Response (level of public debt) 5. Real non-commodity, non-agricultural GDP

Mr. Amine Mati, Ms. Monique Newiak, and James Wilson

conclusive support in favor of asymmetric responses of non-commodity output to commodity price shocks. The findings for oil-exporting countries—supported by various robustness tests—are as follows: Assuming symmetric responses , positive (negative) commodity terms-of-trade shocks significantly increase (decrease) non-commodity real GDP growth in oil exporters, with a pronounced reaction up to three years after the shock. For a 1 percentage point rise in the commodity terms of trade index, 3 the non-commodity real GDP growth rises 0.3 percent in the first period, with

International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

On February 8, 2016, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV consultation 1 with Uruguay. Recent Developments and Outlook Uruguay has achieved more than a decade of high and inclusive economic growth, supported by social stability and reduced regional linkages. International financial markets have recognized Uruguay’s stability and strong financial buffers. Yet, economic activity in Uruguay markedly slowed in 2015, triggered by a regional downturn and weakening prices of its export commodities. Real GDP

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. Africa: Sustaining Recent Growth Momentum The short-term economic outlook for Africa remains very positive, against the backdrop of strong global growth, continued progress in cementing macroeconomic stability, the beneficial impact of debt relief, increased capital inflows, rising oil production in a number of countries, and strong demand for nonfuel commodities. Real GDP growth is expected to accelerate to 6.2 percent this year, from 5.5 percent in 2006, before slowing to 5.8 percent in 2008 ( Table 2.7 ). Inflation (excluding

International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

real estate services. But the change in momentum came from industry which stabilized after a 5-year deceleration, due in part to a sharp recovery in prices of key commodities. Real GDP Stabilizes While Nominal Accelerates (In percent, year-on-year) Source: Haver Analytics. Growth then accelerated into the first quarter of 2017 when real output rose 6.9 percent (yoy), faster than any quarter in 2016. While domestic demand remained strong and real import growth reached double digits, the contribution of net exports turned positive, largely reflecting

International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Uruguay has achieved more than a decade of high and inclusive economic growth, supported by social stability and reduced regional linkages. The country has weathered the recent global and regional headwinds relatively well so far. Yet the economy is slowing down, while inflation remains above target, and deposit dollarization has risen. While the baseline projection foresees a temporary and moderate slowdown, the country is exposed to further shocks, especially from the immediate region.