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International Monetary Fund

Abstract

This paper focuses on concerns over wages, jobs, and future prospects are real and pressing for those who are not well equipped to thrive in this new world. History clearly tells us that closing borders or increasing protectionism is not the way to go. Many countries have tried this route, and just as many have failed. Instead, we need to pursue policies that extend the benefits of openness and integration while alleviating their side effects. Emerging and developing economies have been the prime beneficiaries of economic openness. According to the World Bank, trade has helped reduce by half the pro¬portion of the global population living in extreme poverty. China, for instance, saw a phenomenal drop in its extreme poverty rate—from 36 percent at the end of the 1990s to 6 percent in 2011. Another example is Vietnam, which—in a single generation—moved from being one of the world’s poorest nations to middle-in¬come status—which has allowed for increased investments in health and education.

International Monetary Fund

that’s people.” This message not only reflects Canada’s commitment to inclusiveness and openness, but it also captures the essence of policymaking. And as I will argue today, these issues are deeply intertwined. Openness and international cooperation has always been part of Canada’s DNA. Your country has been one of the IMF’s strongest partners, with an incredibly positive influence on our institution and other member countries. The ability of countries to rise above narrow self-interest has brought unprecedented economic progress over the past 70 years

International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

allocative efficiency in public expenditure, will also be important in responding to fiscal challenges. Infrastructure investment should be complemented with broad reforms aimed at enhancing the business environment, improving connectivity and promoting tourism (including in new markets). Both teams welcomed the authorities’ commitment to inclusive growth, which will be supported by government strategies to provide low-cost housing and improve access to electricity and financial services. The teams broadly welcomed the RBV’s measures to support the economy and banking

International Monetary Fund

have one asset, and that’s people.” This message not only reflects Canada’s commitment to inclusiveness and openness, but it also captures the essence of policymaking. And as I will argue today, these issues are deeply intertwined. Openness and international cooperation has always been part of Canada’s DNA. Your country has been one of the IMF’s strongest partners, with an incredibly positive influence on our institution and other member countries. The ability of countries to rise above narrow self-interest has brought unprecedented economic progress over the

International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that Vanuatu’s Real GDP is expected to decline by 2 percent in 2015 because of the cyclone damage to Vanuatu’s main export sectors—tourism and agriculture—which will be only partially offset by reconstruction activities and infrastructure investment. Risks to the outlook are biased to the downside since reconstruction may be constrained by availability of funding and by implementation capacity. Public sector recovery needs are estimated at about 20 percent of GDP. In 2016, a recovery in tourism and agriculture combined with further ramping-up of infrastructure projects is expected to propel growth to 5 percent.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

hosting the offshore financial sector outweigh the costs, including reputational risks. 28. Inclusiveness . Staff welcomes the authorities’ commitment to inclusive growth aimed at fulfilling the National Vision of “A Just, Educated, Healthy and Wealthy Vanuatu” as elaborated in the government’s Priorities and Action Agenda . Infrastructure development will improve both inter-island connectivity and access to export markets. Staff supports the government’s commitment to bringing financial services to remote areas of the country, including via mobile banking and micro

Mr. Enrique A Gelbard, Corinne Deléchat, Mr. Ulrich Jacoby, Mr. Marco Pani, Mr. Mumtaz Hussain, Mr. Gustavo Ramirez, Rui Xu, Ms. Ejona Fuli, and Dafina Mulaj

rate of return was identified on public investment, the impact of improved resilience on social outcomes was not as clear, although gains were evident in the areas of health and education. The findings related to the experience of resource-rich countries are mixed. While some countries seem to have used the resource windfall of recent years to build resilience, others have had much more difficulty in doing so. What seems missing in the latter are a commitment to inclusive growth, robust social policies, and institutional frameworks that ensure a transparent and

Mr. Enrique A Gelbard, Corinne Deléchat, Ms. Ejona Fuli, Mr. Mumtaz Hussain, Mr. Ulrich Jacoby, Mrs. Dafina Glaser, Mr. Marco Pani, Mr. Gustavo Ramirez, and Rui Xu
This paper analyzes the persistence of fragility in some sub-Saharan African states and the multiple dimensions of state weakness that are simultaneously at play. This study also provides an overview of the analytics of fragility, conflict, and international engagement with fragile states before turning to an assessment of the current state of affairs and the areas in which there has been progress in building resilience. The paper also looks at the role of fiscal policies and institutions and analyzes growth accelerations and decelerations. Seven country case studies help identify more concretely some key factors at play, and the diversity of paths followed, with an emphasis on the sequencing of reforms. The paper concludes with a summary of the main findings and policy implications.
Mr. Edward F Buffie, Luis-Felipe Zanna, Mr. Christopher S Adam, Lacina Balma, Dawit Tessema, and Mr. Kangni R Kpodar

ante poor, good high-wage jobs for low-skill labor in the formal sector, and unemployment — the most important numbers — are all much better in Panel (c) than in Panel (b). In the run where formal sector output is non-tradable (“ 3 = 0:5), choosing Panel (c) over Panel (b) sacrifices one percentage point of NNI in exchange for increasing real income of the ex ante poor an additional 17 percentage points. If the commitment to inclusive growth means anything at all, policy makers will happily accept the trade-off. There are no other easy calls in Table 6 . The all

Mr. Edward F Buffie, Luis-Felipe Zanna, Mr. Christopher S Adam, Lacina Balma, Dawit Tessema, and Mr. Kangni R Kpodar
We introduce a new suite of macroeconomic models that extend and complement the Debt, Investment, and Growth (DIG) model widely used at the IMF since 2012. The new DIG-Labor models feature segmented labor markets, efficiency wages and open unemployment, and an informal non-agricultural sector. These features allow for a deeper examination of macroeconomic and fiscal policy programs and their impact on labor market outcomes, inequality, and poverty. The paper illustrates the model's properties by analyzing the growth, debt, and distributional consequences of big-push public investment programs with different mixes of investment in human capital and infrastructure. We show that investment in human capital is much more effective than investment in infrastructure in promoting long-run economic development when investments earn their average estimated returns. The decision about how much to invest in human capital versus infrastructure involves, however, an acute intertemporal trade-off. Because investment in education affects labor productivity with a long lag, it takes 15+ years before net national income, the private capital stock, real wages for the poor, and formal sector employment surpass their counterparts in a program that invests mainly in infrastructure. The ranking of alternative investment programs depends on the policymakers' social discount rate and on the weight of distributional objectives in the social welfare function.