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Mr. Ashok Vir Bhatia, Ms. Srobona Mitra, Mr. Shekhar Aiyar, Luiza Antoun de Almeida, Cristina Cuervo, Mr. Andre O Santos, and Tryggvi Gudmundsson
This note weighs the merits of a capital market union (CMU) for Europe, identifies major obstacles in its path, and recommends a set of carefully targeted policy actions. European capital markets are relatively small, resulting in strong bank-dependence, and are split sharply along national lines. Results include an uneven playing field in terms of corporate funding costs, the rationing out of collateral-constrained firms, and limited shock absorption. The benefits of integration center on expanding financial choice, ultimately to support capital formation and resilience. Capital market development and integration would support a healthy diversity in European finance. Proceeding methodically, the note identifies three key barriers to greater capital market integration in Europe: transparency, regulatory quality, and insolvency practices. Based on these findings, the note urges three policy priorities, focused on the three barriers. There is no roadblock—such steps should prove feasible without a new grand bargain.
Ara Stepanyan, Agustin Roitman, Gohar Minasyan, Ms. Dragana Ostojic, and Mr. Natan P. Epstein

IV consultations for the Russian Federation ( IMF 2014c ), Poland ( IMF 2014b ), Hungary ( IMF 2015b ), and the Czech Republic ( IMF 2015a ). 2 CCA countries comprise Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 3 Bilateral portfolio flows between Russia and CESEE countries are limited to about 0.1 percent of GDP. 4 Sberbank has subsidiaries in Belarus, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Hungary, Kazakhstan, Turkey, and Ukraine; VTB bank has subsidiaries in Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia

Ara Stepanyan, Agustin Roitman, Gohar Minasyan, Ms. Dragana Ostojic, and Mr. Natan P. Epstein

October 2014 Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe Regional Economic Issues Update ( IMF 2014a ); “Europe’s Russian Connections,” a blog by IMF staff members ( Husain, Ilyina, and Zeng 2014 ); and IMF staff reports for Article IV consultations for the Russian Federation ( IMF 2014c ), Poland ( IMF 2014b ), Hungary ( IMF 2015b ), and the Czech Republic ( IMF 2015a ). 2 CCA countries comprise Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 3 Bilateral portfolio flows between Russia and CESEE

Ara Stepanyan, Agustin Roitman, Gohar Minasyan, Ms. Dragana Ostojic, and Mr. Natan P. Epstein
In the face of sharply lower oil prices and geopolitical tensions and sanctions, economic activity in Russia decelerated in late 2014, resulting in negative spillovers on Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and, to a lesser extent, on Baltic countries. The spillovers to eastern Europe have been limited. The degree of impact is commensurate with the level of these countries’ trade, remittances, and foreign direct investment (FDI) links with Russia. So far, policy action by the affected countries has focused on mitigating the immediate consequences of spillovers.
International Monetary Fund

, fewer data were available on the creditor side. The discussion on bilateral comparisons showed the considerable difficulties in interpreting bilateral portfolio flow statistics. The Working Party found the measurement of portfolio investment to be one of the most difficult statistical problems facing balance of payments compilers. Some of the issues concern matters of identification and classification of securities that, in principle, could be corrected by compilers without great difficulty. Other problems are less tractable and may require international

Ara Stepanyan, Agustin Roitman, Gohar Minasyan, Ms. Dragana Ostojic, and Mr. Natan P. Epstein
In the face of sharply lower oil prices and geopolitical tensions and sanctions, economic activity in Russia decelerated in late 2014, resulting in negative spillovers on Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and, to a lesser extent, on Baltic countries. The spillovers to eastern Europe have been limited. The degree of impact is commensurate with the level of these countries’ trade, remittances, and foreign direct investment (FDI) links with Russia. So far, policy action by the affected countries has focused on mitigating the immediate consequences of spillovers.
Ms. Hali J Edison and Mr. Francis E. Warnock
We analyze capital flows to emerging markets in a framework that incorporates two quantitative measures of financial integration, the intensity of capital controls and the extent of cross border listings, while controlling for traditional global (push) and country specific (pull) factors. Two important results emerge. First, the cross listing of an emerging market firm on a U.S. exchange is an important but short lived capital flows event, suggesting that the cross listed stock is in effect a new security that U.S. investors quickly bring into their portfolios. Second, the effect of financial liberalization on capital flows is more nuanced than is suggested by event studies: A reduction in capital controls results in increased inflows only when the controls are binding. Among the standard push and pull factors, global factors are important-slack U.S. economic activity is associated with increased flows to emerging markets-and U.S. investors appear to chase expected, but not past, returns.
Ms. Hali J Edison and Mr. Francis E. Warnock

bilateral flows data, and equity financing of cross-border mergers makes it increasingly difficult to analyze equity flows. In the remainder of this section, we consider the effects of these three issues on our sample. Coverage Is Limited to U.S. Investors The TIC data are bilateral portfolio flows into and out of the United States and, hence, do not include other countries’ investments in emerging markets. The ideal data for a study of capital flows is a world matrix of flows at the highest frequency possible, with the i,j element giving the net flow from country i

Mr. Robin Koepke and Simon Paetzold
This paper provides an analytical overview of the most widely used capital flow datasets. The paper is written as a guide for academics who embark on empirical research projects and for policymakers who need timely information on capital flow developments to inform their decisions. We address common misconceptions about capital flow data and discuss differences between high-frequency proxies for portfolio flows. In a nowcasting “horse race” we show that high-frequency proxies have significant predictive content for portfolio flows from the balance of payments (BoP). We also construct a new dataset for academic use, consisting of monthly portfolio flows broadly consistent with BoP data.
Mr. Robin Koepke and Simon Paetzold

Canada publish quarterly data, most G7 or G20 economies do not publicly provide data on bilateral portfolio flows. While data availability for bilateral direct investment stocks or flows is more common at quarterly frequencies, more than half of G20 members do not publicly share this data. Table A1.1. Overview of Bilateral Portfolio and Direct Investment Data Country Portfolio Investment Direct Investment G7 Canada Monthly flows data LINK Quarterly flows data; Annual stock data on ultimate beneficial owner